Early acreage estimates for the 2026 planting season are showing an expected shift out of corn into soybeans.
S&P Global released their estimates and pegged corn acreage at 95 million, down 3.8 million acres from 2025. The firm is projecting an increase in soybean plantings of 3.2 million to 84.5 million acres.
Will Farmers Really Plant Less Corn in 2026?
Some of the shift from corn to soybeans is tied to normal rotation, but this year farmers might have more certainty about planting soybeans with China back in the U.S. soybean export market. Another deterrent for corn planting is just the higher input costs associated with corn, especially fertilizer. None of the principal crops is showing a profit in 2026 but the National Corn Growers Association is projecting a $180 per acre loss on corn this coming growing season.
Still, Lane Akre, economist with Pro Farmer, says with a mild fall allowing for fertilizer applications, Pro Farmer is anticipating corn acreage in the U.S. will again be high in 2026.
“We increased our corn acreage estimate from 94 million acres to 95 million acres this last week,” he says. “I know S&P Global is at about that same mark.”
Corn Soybean Price Ratio Matters
Akre says the corn to soybean price ratio as well as the possible crop insurance guarantees historically influences acreage decisions.
That was true in 2025 when farmers planted a near record 98.79 million acres of corn, which was up over 8 million acres from 2024. Conversely, farmers planted 81.22 million acres of soybeans, which was down 6 million from 2024. However, that decision was also influenced by possible tariffs and a trade war with China.
Historical Corn Soybean Price Ration
“So that ratio has a 10 year average of about 2.4, but last year following the tariff threats on China the market knew that we weren’t going to be exporting a lot of beans to China. So that ratio fell down to about 2.25 to 1, and that’s when we saw corn acres explode up to that 98 million acre mark,” Akre explains.
He says they are closely watching those ratios for their impact on the remainder of planting decisions, which farmers are making right now.
“This last week, that ratio basically went from 2.3 up to 2.4,” he adds. “So right near average and above 2.4 is where we start to see soybeans really start to gain more market share, but the change hasn’t been that big.”
Soybeans Need to Rally to Bid for Acres
So with soybean carryout still historically tight at 350 million bushels and with improving export sales, Akre thinks the soybean market may need to rally soon to attract more acres.
“But it’s not only what soybeans do,” he says. “If corn just stays around $4.20, like it’s done over the past week, I don’t think soybeans are going to have to work that hard.”
If soybean prices can rally above $11 they would look more attractive to farmers, especially if corn prices stay flat and under that scenario Akre says acreage could shift.
“You get pushing above $11, and I think the market, I think people are going to start planting more soybeans pretty quickly,” he explains. “Once that happens, especially if that ratio gets to 2.5, 2.6, we’ve seen it happen earlier in the 2020s, when there was a lot of hype and a lot of exports with the Phase One trade agreement, a lot of hype with crush, we saw a lot of soybean acres.”
Crop Insurance Prices Also Play a Role
That corn to soybean price ratio will be reinforced with the spring crop insurance price guarantees set during February.
In 2025 federal crop insurance spring projected prices, finalized in February 2025, set the benchmark for revenue protection. This also contributed to additional corn acres last year as the corn price guarantee was up 16¢ per bushel compared to soybeans, which was down nearly a $1.
- Corn: $4.70 per bushel (up from $4.66 in 2024).
- Soybeans: $10.54 per bushel (down from $11.55 in 2024).
- Spring wheat: $6.55 per bushel (down from $6.85 in 2024).
