Planting progress across the U.S. is off to its slowest start since 2013, and with only 14% of the U.S. corn crop in the field as of May 1, Dan Basse of AgResource Company thinks a record U.S. corn yield is already off the table.
According to the latest Crop Progress Report, USDA estimates 14% of the U.S. corn crop has been planted, which is more than half of the five-year average planting pace. It’s also 28 points behind the same time last year.
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Even with forecasts pointing to heat and dry weather next week, this past week has been wet and cold for many areas, which meant little planting took place again across the Midwest this week.
“We’re not going to be able to catch up historically,” Basse says. “We’re estimating U.S. current seedings will be about 20% to 22% completed in the next report, because of all the rain that we’ve had. So, the record low as of May 8, which will be the report that comes out on Monday, is 17%. We will get a little above that, but it’s going to be a late seeded year no matter how we look at it.”
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Basse says historical data shows once the calendar gets past May 10 to May 15, yields potentially show a yield drag due to late planted crops.
“I’m not saying this is going to be a bad crop, but a lot of things have got to go right, and we’ve kind of taken a record yield off the table,” Basse says. “Notice that USDA is still using the record 181 [bu. per acre] corn yield, which is four bushels an acre above last year’s record. We’ll see if that all bears out.”
USDA will update its production forecast in next week’s May WASDE report, as well as the supply and demand picture. According to AgWeb, yield potential is still promising, even for farmers who haven’t planted much of their crop yet.
“Even if we get into May 15, we’re still at 95% of the yield potential for the yield (in Iowa and Illinois),” says Brent Tharp, Wyffels technical product manager. “Even if we get out to May 20, we’re still at 92% of the yield potential for that particular year.”
It’s both supply and demand that is grabbing headlines around the globe, as concerns over grain shortages continue. Just last week, the Biden administration announced a proposal to incentivize farmers in the U.S. to plant more wheat and oilseeds. With the 2022 growing season just getting started, Wiesemeyer says the White House seems concerned about crop production for the next two years.
“They’re not only worried about the current year’s crop, but they’re really concerned about the 2023 crop relative to inputs, seeded acreage, etc,” Wiesemeyer says. “But I will tell you, after watching this town for just right around 50 years, when you talk food price run up to what we have seen, plus inflation, I don’t care whether it’s a Republican or Democrat administration in the White House, they can do some stupid things because they have done it in the past.”
Wiesemeyer says recent American Soybean Association (ASA analysis suggests the White House proposal will have little impact from proposed loan rate increases and crop insurance double-crop incentive.
The Biden administration’s proposal included extending commodity loan terms for 2022 crops to 12 months, increasing marketing assistance loan (MAL) rates for 2022 and 2023 crops, and providing a $10-per-acre payment under crop insurance to incentivize double-cropping of soybeans after winter wheat in 2023. Wiesemeyer says the ASA analysis shows, if approved, the actions would not appear to have a significant impact.
