Farmers in the Northern Plains are facing cash soybean prices below $9, and with China absent from the soybean export market, $8 soybeans could continue to be a reality this harvest. In fact, Dan Basse, president and founder of AgResource Company, says the Chinese government is continuing to instruct Chinese importers to not buy U.S. soybeans. Until that changes, soybean prices are likely to remain low.
Even with Washington and Beijing extending a tariff truce for 90 days earlier this month, China hasn’t officially purchased a single bushel of new crop U.S. soybeans, something the U.S. hasn’t seen since 2010.
Similar to the previous trade war, it seems farmers are on the edge of the spear when it comes to the impact, with soybean prices sliding to levels well below break-even. With basis crashing, North Dakota seems to be hit especially hard. Just how low are prices?
- In Maddock, N.D., basis is negative $1.65, with cash soybeans sitting at $8.83 on Tuesday.
- In Carrington, N.D., basis is negative $1.45, which brings the price to $9.03 cash.
At those levels, farmers are looking at losing even more equity this year. The American Soybean Association sent a letter to President Trump last week warning of dire long-term economic outcomes for farmers if the country continues to not buy U.S. soybeans.
Also last week, Beijing’s ambassador to Washington specifically called out farmers, saying U.S. protectionism is undermining agricultural cooperation with China and warning farmers shouldn’t bear the price of the trade war between the world’s two largest economies.
Chinese Importers Are Being Told to Not Buy U.S. Soybeans
Last week, President Donald Trump urged China to step up its purchasing, posting on his Truth Social social media site.
“China is worried about its shortage of soybeans,” Trump wrote. “I hope China will quickly quadruple its soybean orders. This is also a way of substantially reducing China’s Trade Deficit with the USA.”
That single post caused soybean prices to surge more than 2%, but Basse says there is no sign of China following through on Trump’s ask.
“I cannot find China buying soybeans today,” Basse told U.S. Farm Report late last week. “I cannot find any evidence of anything changing. Secretary of Treasury Bessent indicated the negotiations with China are working well. Soybeans will be included in the final pact, which I think we all expected. But although the talk of China buying U.S. beans was evident today, I can’t find it in any of my commercial clients that they’ve made any sales.”
Basse says soybean importers aren’t just snubbing U.S. soybeans. They are specifically being told by the Chinese government to not buy U.S. beans.
“So, if you’re a Chinese importer or a Chinese crusher, you’ve been told by the government not to buy U.S. soybeans until they tell you to. This is how China works. Today the Chinese have a stronghold on buying United States soybeans, even though our prices are nearly $1 a bushel cheaper than what they’re buying in Brazil. This is the pressure that I believe the Chinese government is trying to apply on the Trump administration during a trade negotiation,” Basse says.
Farmers Can’t Afford Casual Trade Policies
China is the world’s largest soybean buyer, but as of late, it has been turning to Brazil for beans amid trade tensions with the U.S. To put it into perspective, Beijing bought 54% of U.S. soybean exports in the 2023/24 marketing year.
According to the American Soybean Association (ASA), farmers can’t afford casual trade policies when China walks away from U.S. soy.
ASA points out China is the world’s top soybean buyer, and there’s no competition in that space. ASA says over the last five soybean marketing years, China has imported an average of 61% of the world’s traded soybean supplies — more than the rest of the world combined.
In 2024, China was the biggest buyer of U.S. soybeans, with exports to China valued at $12 billion in 2024.
“China has not been shy about its strategies to circumvent freshly harvested U.S. supplies this fall. China imported record volumes of Brazilian soybeans between April and July 2025, growing domestic stockpiles of soymeal to the point at which Chinese soybean processors are facing negative margins,” ASA recently released in a report. “In early August 2025, traders announced a first-time export sale of Argentine soymeal to China to be delivered this fall to reassure Chinese feed mill buyers anxious about hog feed availability amid the ongoing trade dispute.”
ASA says that’s equated to more than a $0.51/bu. (5%) price drop in less than three weeks.
“And it’s not just Chicago where the losses are piling up. In the Northern Plains, where the majority of the soybeans produced have traditionally been exported to China via the Pacific Northwest (PNW), there are currently zero orders for new crop soybeans on the books, according to BNSF Railway and exporters in the PNW,” ASA says. “Cash prices have tumbled across North Dakota, South Dakota and Nebraska as a result, with nearby basis in Alton, N.D., widening from -$0.95/bu. on July 15 to -$1.20/bu. on August 8 due to the lack of export buyers.”
ASA says the bottom line is time is running out — and farmers could pay the price.
Mike Steenhoek, executive director of the Soy Transportation Coalition (STC), agrees while there is time for China to still come to the table to buy, time is running out — especially considering the tariff truce in place is for another 90 days.
“The concern is there’s this November date when this pause will then be up for renegotiation, and that’s really starting to get pretty late,” he shared in an episode of “AgriTalk”. “This whole six-month period of time is really important to us. Not only are we looking for the volume of exports, but timing is really critical. That’s something we’re really trying to express to our state elected officials and decision makers.”
Steenhoek says it’s also important to note that China is a unique market. When the soybean industry strategized who the ideal customer would be for U.S. soybeans, the list was simple:
- A country with a large population
- Growing per capita income
- Increasing demand for protein, like pork and poultry
- A significant amount of cooking oil usage for frying foods
“When you look around the globe, there are some countries that maybe have two or three of those bullet points, but really none that have all of those bullet points, and particularly in the same font size, where China has them in really big font size,” Steenhoek says. “That kind of encapsulates, in a nutshell, why the Chinese market is so important to us. Yes, we have some diversity of our customers. When you take the imports of soybeans to China, they import more than all of our other international customers combined. That really just shows that, yes, we can diversify — but also we need the Chinese market.”
ASA points out harvest will be especially painful if the situation doesn’t change soon.
“The tariffs implemented this year have had a limited impact on soy to this point as they occurred outside the major export window. That is quickly changing. Combines will start rolling through fields in the next month to harvest soy. At that point, the lack of export bookings will quickly become problematic, as the main destination for the oilseed contains significant barriers. The problem will compound through the fall as more of the crop is harvested. By mid-October, almost half of the crop will be entering the supply chain,” ASA says.
Market analysts say if China would step up and start buying, it could change the soybean price picture almost overnight.
