USDA’s ag attaché in Brazil has raised its soybean production forecast to 89.5 MMT based on increased hectares planted to soybeans as well as higher-than-anticipated yields from early-maturing soybean varieties. USDA in January estimated the 2013-14 Brazilian bean crop at 89 MMT.
“With only a few minor problems along the way, 2013-14 soybean planting has concluded very well and total area planted to soybeans is estimated at a record 29.4 million hectares. However, there are some areas like the state of Piauí that are still planting in January. Area expansions are being reported in every state, and national area is an estimated 6% larger than 2012-13,” the post explains.
According to the attaché report, around 4.2% of Mato Grosso’s crop had been harvested by mid-January and the state of Parana began its soybean harvest in western areas around mid-month. Early harvest results have been better than farmers’ expected.
“Second-crop soybeans in Mato Grosso continue to be estimated at 300,000-400,000 hectares,” the report notes.
Addressing irregular rains in late December/early January, the attaché says the dry spell did not appear to have any significant impact on production. “The states of Mato Grosso do Sul and Goiás both reported that they expect a 10% decrease in productivity, but these reports may have been premature and yields are likely to make a rebound,” the attaché elaborates.
Also of note, the ag attaché raised its Brazilian soybean export projection to 46 MMT, due to expectations for a record-large crop. USDA’s latest projection is for Brazilian exports to total 44 MMT. But of course, transporting the crop from field to port and lading ships at the port will remain a big challenge. “Transportation and logistical improvements from 2013 to 2014 are marginal and hence these improvements are expected to proffer only marginal relief,” the attaché’s report elaborates.
In addition, the attaché notes, “Any export euphoria is tempered by concerns of uncertainty in global demand and exchange rate movements. While China has proven itself a rather reliable buyer of Brazilian soybeans, this does not amount to certainty in the market.”
For more details, check out the full report.
