For 2022, corn production will be down and soybean production up from 2021.
Corn production is down 5% from last year, forecast at 14.4 billion bushels, according to the Aug. 12 reports from USDA. Average corn yield is forecast at 175.4 bu. per acre, down 1.6 bu. from last year. NASS forecasts record-high yields in California, Iowa, Washington, and Wisconsin.
Acres planted to corn, at 89.8 million, are down 4% from 2021. As of July 31, 61% of this year’s corn crop was reported in good or excellent condition, 1 percentage point below the same time last year.
#Corn planted acres at 89.8 million acres, down just slightly from 89.9 million June 30th due to the resurvey in 3 states. #soybean planted acres 88.0, down from 88.3 million acres. #oatt
— Arlan Suderman (@ArlanFF101) August 12, 2022
For soybeans, production is forecast to increase 2% from 2021, forecast at 4.53 billion bushels. Area for soybean harvest is forecast at 87.2 million acres with planted area for the nation estimated at 88 million acres, up 1% from last year.
USDA's yield forecast for U.S. #soybeans ties 2016's record 51.9 bu/acre, bolstered by new records in eastern states incl. top grower Illinois. It is likely dryness in Nebraska & Iowa has limited potential there, but North Dakota is seen bouncing back from last year's drought. pic.twitter.com/RsGCmW3fKG
— Karen Braun (@kannbwx) August 12, 2022
Soybean yields are expected to average a record-high 51.9 bu. per acre, up 0.5 bu. from 2021. If realized, the forecasted yields in Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, Mississippi, Ohio, and Virginia will be record highs.
“The biggest surprise of the report was government raising the national bean yield, up 0.4 of a bushel; the trade was actually expecting the yield would go down on this report,” says Jim McCormick, co-founder of AgMarket.Net.
With the heat many in the Corn Belt has seen, and little rain in the forecast, he says that soybean national average yield will likely be debated.
“We do have the upcoming farm tours that will maybe give us a little better picture,” McCormick says. “It’s something to keep an eye on. If that yield would start to slip back a 1 bu. or 1.5 bu., due to missing out on these late-season rains, it could definitely change the balance sheet for soybeans.”
Read More: How To Analyze Pro Farmer Crop Tour Data
All cotton production is forecast at 12.6 million 480-lb bales, down 28% from 2021. Based on conditions as of Aug. 1, yields are expected to average 846 lb. per harvested acre, up 27 lb. from 2021. Upland cotton production is forecast at 12.2 million 480-lb. bales, down 29% from 2021. Pima cotton production is forecast at 407,000 bales, up 23% from 2021. All cotton area harvested is forecast at 7.13 million acres, down 31% from 2021.
All wheat production for grain is forecast at 1.78 billion bushels, up less than 1% from the previous forecast and up 8% from 2021. Based on Aug. 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 47.5 bu. per harvested acre, up 0.2 bu. from the previous forecast and up 3.2 bu. from 2021. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 37.5 million acres, down less than 1% from the previous forecast, but up 1% from 2021.
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