WASDE: Port Shutdown's Effects Linger for Rice Exports
RICE: U.S. rice 2015/16 supply and use balance sheets are little changed from last month. All rice beginning stocks are raised 2.5 million cwt with long-grain rice stocks raised 0.5 million, and medium- and short-grain stocks raised 2.0 million. All rice imports are raised 0.5 million cwt to 25.0 million (all long-grain), up 2 percent from revised 2014/15. Medium- and short-grain exports are raised 2.0 million cwt to 34.0 million as a large outstanding sales balance to Northeast Asia in 2014/15 will likely be shipped in 2015/16. The large balance was caused in part due to work slowdowns and stoppages at ports along the West Coast earlier this year. This labor dispute has since been resolved, but a large backlog at the ports still exists. Additionally, Turkey has not accepted some U.S. medium-grain rice shipments in 2014/15 for phytosanitary reasons in recent months. The long-grain export projection is unchanged at 76.0 million cwt, but up 4 percent from the previous year. Long-grain ending stocks for 2015/16 are raised 1.0 million cwt to 35.1 million, up 23 percent from 2014/15, and the largest since 2010/11. Medium- and short-grain ending stocks are forecast at 11.0 million cwt, unchanged from last month, but 24 percent below the previous year’s revised estimate.
The U.S. 2015/16 long-grain rice season-average farm price is projected at $10.00 to $11.00 per cwt, unchanged from last month compared to $11.90 to $12.10 for the previous year. The combined medium- and short-grain price is unchanged at $17.80 to $18.80 per cwt compared to $17.80 to $18.20 for the year earlier. The 2015/16 all rice price is projected at $12.30 to $13.30 per cwt, compared to $13.20 to $13.60 per cwt for 2014/15. The California and Other States medium-and short-grain prices are unchanged from last month.
Global 2015/16 rice supply and use is little changed from a month ago. Global rice production is projected at a record 481.7 million tons, 0.4 million below a month ago. Brazil’s rice crop is forecast at 8.0 million tons, down 0.3 million from last month, a result of a reduction in area. This crop will not be planted until October-December 2015. The change is based mostly on a reduction in the 2014/15 rice crop based on recent estimates from the government of Brazil. Global consumption is nearly unchanged at a record 489.0 million tons. Global 2015/16 trade (imports and exports) are also nearly unchanged from a month ago. World export projections are raised slightly for Guyana and the United States. Global ending stocks are forecast at 91.4 million tons, down slightly from last month, down 7.2 million from the previous year, and the smallest stocks since 2007/08. The global stocks-to-use ratio at 18.7 percent is unchanged from a month ago, but down 1.7 points from the previous year, and the lowest since 2006/07.
