WASDE: Soybean Yield Up Slightly; Harvested Area Lowered
OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2015/16 is projected at 115.4 million tons, up 0.4 million from last month as a higher soybean production forecast offsets lower cottonseed and peanut crops. Soybean production for 2015/16 is projected at 3.916 billion bushels, up 31 million as a higher yield offsets a lower harvested area. Harvested area is revised down 0.9 million acres from the July estimate to 83.5 million mainly on lower acreage in Missouri. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 46.9 bushels per acre is 0.9 bushels above last month’s projected trend and 0.9 bushels below last year’s record yield. Soybean supplies for 2015/16 are projected 16 million bushels above last month based on the higher production forecast. Forecast U.S. soybean exports are lowered by 50 million bushels to 1.725 billion, as a result of slow export sales commitments. Soybean crush is raised 20 million bushels based on expected higher domestic use of soybean meal and soybean oil. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 470 million bushels, up 45 million from last month.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2015/16 is forecast at $8.40 to $9.90 per bushel, down 10 cents at the midpoint from last month. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $310 to $350, down 5 dollars at the midpoint. Soybean oil prices are forecast at 29.5 to 32.5 cents per pound, down 1 cent at the midpoint.
U.S. changes for 2014/15 include increased soybean crush, which is raised 15 million bushels to 1.845 billion reflecting higher domestic use and exports of soybean meal. With higher expected domestic use, the forecast of season-ending soybean stocks are reduced to 240 million bushels.
Global oilseed production for 2015/16 is projected at 529.1 million tons, down 2.7 million tons from last month. Reductions for rapeseed, sunflowerseed, cottonseed, and peanuts more than offset an increase in soybean production. Soybean production is projected up 1.1 million tons with higher crops for the United States and Ukraine. Rapeseed production is reduced 2.6 million tons as hot and dry weather curtailed yields in Canada and the EU, while harvested area is lowered for Ukraine, Belarus, and Australia. Other changes include lower EU sunflowerseed production, and reduced cottonseed production for India and China.
Projected 2015/16 global soybean ending stocks are lowered 4.9 million tons to 86.9 million with a higher crush for China, the EU, and the United States. Despite this month’s reduction, global soybean stocks remain record high. Projected soybean imports for China in 2015/16 are increased 1.5 million tons to 79 million and up from a revised 2014/15 forecast of 77 million. Soybean exports for Brazil and Argentina are projected higher due to growth in global trade.
