Plant 25 is already underway in some areas of the country, while in others producers are still penciling out their acreage mix.
Farmers in the Northwest Corn Belt have many, but not all of their planting plans made for 2025.
Everything from possible tariffs...to ongoing dryness are factoring into decisions right now.
In North Dakota there will be some acreage shifts based on input and crop prices says
Chris Kolstoe, Director of Operations for CHS Ag Services.
“Over the winter, there’s been definitely more talk of corn, and maybe a little less wheat, probably be the biggest change in our mix for coming year.”
At the CHS Ag Industry Day in Grand Forks, Randy Martinson with Martinson Ag said the corn soybean price ratio favors corn and so does the spring base price for insurance with soybeans well under 2024.
“They’re down about a little about a dollar from last year and corn is up four cents from last year so that in itself speaks volumes for you know kind of the direction that most are leaning towards for planting this year because of more corn acres.”
But he says yield is also a big consideration as corn outperformed soybeans last year.
“Corn was a really good producer last year. That crop was able to shut down during the dry period of the year and then come off at the end of the growing season and actually yield very well for a lot of producers.”
Farmers are also planting less beans with trade uncertainty, although acreage can’t fall too far with two new crush plants online in North Dakota.
There’s also talk of more sunflowers.
So, wheat may be the loser according to Kolstoe.
“We had a lot of bad issues with spring wheat in our area last year or two for quality between vomitoxin, low falling numbers and so it’s got some people not very excited about planting wheat right now especially with the price where wheat is,” he explains.
Tariff talk is also leading to caution on specialty crops that saw prices plunge during the trade war in 2018.
Martinson says, “I mean right now I would expect that edible beans and the dry peas and lentils might see a little bit lower acres because of you know The tariff tall.”
South Dakota producers are indicating similar acreage shifts according to market analyst DuWayne Bosse of Bolt Marketing, who also farms near Britton.
“I think it’s going to be more corn acres this year. You know, probably at the expense of soybeans, but maybe also at the expense of prevent plant.”
Again he says it’s purely a dollars and cents decision.
“I mean, corn yields have really improved in South Dakota where the soybean yields are kind of dragging for the last 10, 15 years, I’d say. So it’s profitability.”
And in Minnesota, Lake Benton farmer Bob Worth agrees there will be more corn and more corn on corn this year.
“Corn, you know what at $4.25 you can break even if you do not have a lot of machine repayments or or a lot of debt to service. Soybeans I mean you have to be in $11, $11.50 to make that even work. And we’re nowhere near that,” he says.
Factors that could limit big corn plantings in the North include the availability and price of fertilizer, if Canadian tariffs go into effect.
Luckily, Josh Paula, Senior Director of Market and Strategic Analysis, The Mosaic Company says most of their spring fill is done.
“Most of that fertilizer for spring season is in place on the potash side. There are still some tons that will move across the border in prep for certainly the northern plains, which won’t go nearly as soon as the southern areas of the United States. If these tariffs remain in place, you could see an impact on those tons that have yet to still I think it’s a fairly you know a fairly small percentage overall.”
And what about seed supply? Will it support a big surge in corn acres?
Kolstoe says, “You know, there’s varieties that are short, but all in all, it looks like we’re gonna have the corn seed for what we’ve got booked and the potential of new acres. I think we’re gonna be okay for having enough corn seed.”
Worth is more skeptical, :You’ll have seed, but it won’t be the seed that you really want. It’ll be like the, you know, lower down on the yield and all this, so it’s gonna be hurt that.”
And another headwind is for a third straight year the region is seeing an open winter which has heightened concern about drought.
Scott Johnson, farms near Manville, North Dakota and says they are seeing the third consecutive open winter and that has him worried.
“I wish there was snow on the ground. We’ve had a black winter through the last couple. Last fall got to be kind of dry and so it would be good to have a little recharge.”
Eric Snodgrass is Senior Science Fellow with Nutrien Ag Solutions and says the drought has intensified.
“The lack of moisture in the Northern Plains is still very much there even though we still have systems going over the top they’re too fast, we still have a frost line.And below that there’s still a lack of subsurface soil moisture.”
Long term forecasts show the Western Corn Belt could get moisture this spring, then turn back dry.
As a result, farmers like Jason Nelson of Thompson, North Dakota, are keeping their powder dry to make last minute changes.
“Because if it’s dry up here and we’ll probably maybe switch to something that uses a little less water a little less nutrients and you know let’s try to maintain some flexibility there so we can do that as well so.”
So just like every year, Mother Nature will have the final say.
