GMO Wheat Searches for a Spot on the World's Table
Gro Intelligence reported in May that the U.S. government estimates global wheat stockpile levels are at 33% of annual consumption, and they believe these estimates don’t “add up.”
Sara Menker, CEO of Gro Intelligence, says her team’s estimates differ from the government’s, showing wheat stockpiles are as low as 20% of the annual consumption, meaning the world has just 10 weeks’ worth of global wheat consumption in storage.
With threats to global food supplies, ag companies are stepping up to ensure wheat has a seat at everyone’s table. Embrapa, Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation, is taking a shot at filling the wheat void through GMO wheat trials.
GMO Wheat Reserves a Seat
Embrapa has been working with GMO wheat research since 2010, but the first experiment installed in the field by Embrapa was sowed in March 2022, says Álvaro Dossa, Embrapa’s senior wheat analyst. He says the company’s three GMO wheat cultivars concentrate on the HB4 gene—obtained from the company Bioceres—which focuses on the plant’s resistance to drought.
The current trails are small, measuring 70.8 m². Embrapa says the garden bed-like experiment will expand after this year, once it chooses the best plants in the field.
Measuring Success
While the experiment is ongoing, Embrapa isn’t prepared to make any predictions in wheat productivity yielding from the HB4 gene. However, surveys point to possibilities.
Surveys carried out in other countries point towards gains in grain yield ranging from 2% to 41%, with an average of 19.3%. Embrapa says it expects to find at least “similar gains” in Brazilian conditions.
“Resistance to water deficit should have an impact on the increase in the area of wheat cultivation in the rainfed system of wheat, since we estimate there are over 2.5 million hectares suitable for wheat growing in the Brazilian Cerrado, that we can use without any changes to the environment, just by including wheat in our established crop rotations for soybeans, beans, cotton, among others,” says Dossa.
Data from the initial experiment will be available soon, according to Dossa.
“The GMO wheat harvest is scheduled for August 2022, when the plants with the best performance and potential results will be evaluated,” he says. “A new experiment should be carried out in the next crop (2023) and so on, until confirming possible benefits or limitations in the use of transgenic wheat with the HB4 gene in Brazil.”
Wheat Market Opportunities
According to Embrapa, the first research results should be available in three years. If the results are promising, commercial-scale GMO wheat cultivation in Brazil will depend on legal matters.
The company says authorization for cultivation will come from the Brazilian Government and then meet commercial criteria, such as royalties and intellectual property belonging to the company that owns the BH4 gene, Bioceres.
What’s at Stake
The war in Ukraine is increasing the area of wheat cultivation in Brazil, but Embrapa says it isn’t the main driver in its GMO wheat research. With their first request for the HB4 gene from Bioceres in 2017, before the conflict and the pandemic, Embrapa says it’s had a spotlight on wheat for some time.
Embrapa does feel a rush to quickly meet the increase in food demand, however.
“Current food demand can accelerate the acceptance of GMO wheat by the end-consumer. Mainly, the European market,” says Dossa. “Despite importing 40% of the wheat it consumes, Brazil already exports 15% of its national wheat production to Africa and Asia.”
He says in 10 years, if wheat production continues to grow at a rate of 10% per year like in the last couple of years, Brazil will increase its overall projected production of 8 million tons in 2022 to around 20 million tons by 2031, “positioning Brazil among the top ten wheat exporters in the international trade.”
Race to the Finish
When asked, Embrapa says it is aware of research on GMO wheat at other companies like Monsanto (Bayer), CSIRO (Australia), the Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Rothamsted Research (UK), among other institutions around the world.
However, the company sees this as healthy competition.
“We consider all initiatives to be beneficial in seeking solutions to the various issues affecting wheat,” says Dossa. “Embrapa is available to build partnerships and jointly develop technologies that favour farmers, industry and consumers. Science is key in solving the world’s problems.”
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