Winter wheat planting season is underway, but with drought still lingering in parts of wheat country what will that mean for acreage this fall?
While the moisture situation has improved in some areas of the plains like Texas, must of the rest of the hard red winter wheat belt is still in drought. However, base prices for crop insurance were set last week at the end of last week for both classes of winter wheat and may provide enough financial incentive to entice farmers to plant in the dust.
The Risk Management Agency finalized the base price for winter wheat for crop insurance last week at $8.40 per bushel for Soft Red winter wheat verses $7.14 last year. While hard red winter wheat is at $8.79 verses $7.08 a year ago.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag says he expects acres to be retained with crop insurance base prices above 2021.
“Like 31% increase over last year,” he says. “So we’re coming in at $8.40 to $8.70 area for the winter wheats and that certainly will attract quite a few acres.”
Daniel O’Brien, Extension Agricultural Economist, Kansas State University, agrees those are historically high price guarantees for wheat and above many break evens.
“It’s fully a $1.70, some 60 better than last year. That should cover cost is they get any type of yield, anything above 30, 35 bushels anyway. So it should be positive. “
The key is still whether or not farmers have the moisture to plant into.
“Knowing Kansas farmers they will probably wait until they are blessed with some moisture to then seed the wheat,” says O’Brien. “If they see the moisture coming etc. to try to ensure they have successful germination on the crop.”
Unfortunately he says there isn’t much moisture in the forecast for the next couple of weeks as the winter wheat planting window starts to close.
According to O’Brien, about 70% of Kansas is still in drought on the latest Drought Monitor and the Climate Prediction Center is also forecasting La Nina to extend into 2023--not the best outlook for the crop.
Some early farmer surveys put acreage at 35.2 million acres up nearly 5%.
