Cattle futures ran into a perfect storm as USDA’s announcement of a partial border reopening to Mexican cattle hit the news alongside monthly and semiannual cattle reports. Deferred feeder cattle futures closed limit down, with traders struggling to digest both the new import protocols and existing on‑feed supplies in the same session. Market analyst Mike Zuzolo of Global Commodity Analytics argues it’s less about one bearish number and more about the “stacked” timing of all the news that produced such a violent, arguably overdone, move.
Market analyst Joe Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says the border news “takes the cake” in today’s trade, but agrees the reaction looks overdone, especially after an already big break and a mostly neutral cattle inventory report.
Late Friday, USDA announced the coordinated, phased reopening of southern cattle ports, contingent on Mexico’s adherence to the Joint Action Plan. Beginning Aug. 24, 2026, USDA will open the Douglas, Ariz., port of entry to cattle trade, while simultaneously initiating the operational steps necessary for subsequent openings at the Santa Teresa, N.M., and Columbus, N.M., ports.
Kooima explains the price reaction is probably bigger than the actual change in supplies, but encourages producers to be prepared for more sharp swings in the short term.
He says feeders ran too high after the border closed and are now in a “stretch-band” snapback rather than a total fundamental collapse. He says to treat this as a correction in an already tight-supply environment, not a signal that cattle are suddenly long‑term burdensome.
The Border Debate
The decision to resume trade has created debate across the cattle industry. Some producers argue the border should remain closed, while others, particularly cattle feeders, rely on Mexican feeder cattle supplies. Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist Derrell Peel says the impact varies depending on where producers sit in the industry.
“I think it depends on your perspective,” he explains. “I live in a part of the world where there’s generally a lot of support for getting those Mexican cattle back.”
He says the historical volume of Mexican cattle imports is important, but not the primary driver of cattle prices. Mexican imports have averaged 1.15 head per year or about 3.2% of the U.S. calf crop.
“So it’s a significant number, but it’s not a huge major factor,” he summarizes, adding producers need to keep in mind the border closure was not responsible for record cattle prices they saw last year.
“The closing the border last year is not what caused record high cattle prices in the U.S. It added a tiny bit at the margin, but it’s not the reason. For those folks who may think that opening the border is going to change the overall trajectory of cattle markets in the U.S., I don’t think that’s going to happen.”
The border announcement comes as cattle futures have already been under pressure following a sharp correction over the past month. Peel says the border reopening could add some additional pressure, but he does not expect it to be a lasting market factor.
“We’ve been in a really big correction for the last month anyway. The futures markets have pulled markets down significantly and also impacting cash markets,” Peel says. “It looked like last week ahead of the reports that we were kind of finding a bottom in that. Now with this additional news, you know we may extend that bottom a little bit or take it a little lower.”
However, Peel says he views the market response as temporary. He views the price action as more of a correction versus a long-term impact.
“We’ll have to wait and see here in the next few days, you know, and how the futures market reacts. But once, you know, they had the weekend to absorb the news and think about it. So, I would imagine that the response will be pretty short lived.”
Here are some key takeaways about the announcement:
1. Don’t Expect a Flood of Cattle — Flow Will Be Phased In and Smaller
Reopening starts at Douglas and only expands if things go smoothly. Mexico has grown its own feedlot and packing sectors, so total Mexican feeder imports are unlikely to return to historic levels.
While some producers have expressed concern the reopening could bring a surge of cattle into the U.S., Peel says the initial impact will be limited for several reasons, including the first location will restrict the number of cattle that can move north.
“We’re starting with Sonora, the Douglas, Ariz., port. That’s, you know, historically about 15% of the cattle that cross each year come through that port,” Peel says.
Sonora also has some of the strictest animal health requirements in Mexico, limiting which cattle can enter the state.
“Sonora, as a state, has the strongest and most stringent health requirements in the country. They basically don’t let any cattle from any other state in Mexico come into Sonora,” Peel says. “So it’ll be pretty much limited to Sonora cattle when it opens. And so I think it will be a slow process for that reason.”
USDA has not announced a timeline for reopening additional ports, including larger-volume locations in New Mexico.
“The New Mexico ports, of course, would be much bigger, but we didn’t get any timeline on when that would happen. So, it’ll be later in the fall,” Peel says.
Even with the reopening, Peel expects imports in 2026 to remain well below normal because of the delayed reopening and limited port capacity. Assuming additional ports reopen later this year, Peel estimates imports could reach 200,000 to 250,000 head by year-end, but he considers that an optimistic scenario.
The industry should not expect cattle flows to immediately return to previous levels, according to Peel. Whether Mexican cattle imports ever return to historical levels remains uncertain. As Mexico has beefed up its domestic cattle feeding industry over the last decade, he says the infrastructure within Mexico has changed.
“Will we ever see those historical levels return? I think it’s an open question at this point,” Peel says.
2. USDA Is Returning To a Proven 2025-Style Protocol
Colin Woodall, National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) CEO, says USDA is essentially reinstating the same system that worked earlier in 2025.
“It looks like the procedure is going to be very similar to the protocol that was in place between January and May of 2025, when we were crossing cattle, even after New World Screwworm had made it into Mexico,” he explains. “This was a protocol that we had for about five months. It was one that we were very comfortable with, and we’re very comfortable with it now.”
Key procedures he highlights:
- Pre-inspection in Mexico. “There will be pre-inspection facilities in the interior of Sonora and Chihuahua, where Mexican veterinarians will be inspecting these cattle, providing prophylactic doses of various medications such as ivermectin.”
- Monitoring before border movement. “There’ll be a monitoring timeline before they can then head to the border, which then they will be inspected once again.”
- Final inspection and dipping at the border. “If they pass that secondary inspection, they will go through a dipping vat before they’re allowed into the country.”
3. Different Kind of Cattle: Heavier Weights Coming North
Before the border closed, the U.S. commonly saw three- to five-weight feeders from Mexico. Going forward, Kooima says he expects more eight- to nine-weight cattle crossing, which will impact pen space and days on feed. He says this changes how producers think about feed costs, financing and hedging windows.
4. New World Screwworm Risk Remains
While the reopening comes with continued concerns about New World screwworm (NWS), Peel says he believes progress is being made in controlling the threat.
“We’re sort of getting a handle on it here,” Peel says. “Obviously we don’t have it under control yet. It’s going to take probably many months, perhaps years to sort of redo the process of getting it out of the U.S., then getting it out of Mexico and pushing it back down towards Panama.”
Peel says improved containment efforts should reduce the risk associated with increased cattle movement, but says movement could also create additional pressure on animal health monitoring in the U.S.
“To the extent that Mexican cattle do start coming to the U.S., that may translate into some additional demand on the south side. And that is how the New World Screwworm got across Central America and into Mexico,” Peel says. “But I think as time goes on, we’re going to be making more and more progress in terms of the containment and control of that. And so I don’t know that I see this as a significant change in that threat.”
United States Cattlemen’s Association (USCA) says it is disappointed in USDA’s decision to move forward with reopening the southern border to Mexican cattle while so many unresolved risks remain for the U.S. herd. USCA underscores that border policy must be driven by science‑based risk assessment and on‑the‑ground capacity.
“Any effort to lower beef prices must not come at the expense of U.S. cattle herd health,” says USCA President Justin Tupper. “We’ve been encouraged to rebuild the domestic herd, that it is of utmost importance, and unnecessary exposure to animal health threats is a risk we do not need to take.”
USCA outlined three core expectations moving forward:
- Enforce the highest possible import standards on Mexican cattle.
- Full transparency and communication from USDA and Mexico.
- A laser focus on domestic eradication and producer tools.
USCA’s statement insists now is the time to double‑down on domestic eradication efforts, not relax them. That includes:
- Expanding sterile fly production capacity through public‑private partnerships to supplement the COPEG facility in Panama.
- Giving U.S. producers access to every tool in the toolbox to stay ahead of infestations — not just treatment options after an infected case is found.
- Ensuring that federal and state agencies are funded and staffed to respond rapidly and effectively to any incursion.
Those who support the announcement agree reopening the border is essential to protect U.S. feeding and packing infrastructure and to begin normalizing trade based on confidence in disease-control protocols.
“We have been pushing for this for quite some time, so we’re actually glad that we finally have a plan, and we have been very thankful for the secretary finally taking this approach,” Woodall summarizes. “She didn’t just completely reopen the border on Friday; she provided the timeline on how it’s going to be reopened, and that is something that NCBA has been asking for and promoting.”
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