USDA Acreage Report Shows More Corn Than Expected, Soybeans In Line With Estimates

Grain prices came to life after USDA released the June Acreage report and the June Grain Stocks report on Tuesday.

Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist wtih StoneX, breaks down the biggest takeaways from the report, and what to watch to signal whether prices could find further support in the weeks ahead.

Grain futures ended the day with solid gains Tuesday, with corn shaking off a slightly higher-than-expected planted acres number to find support on significantly tighter than expected quarterly stocks.

December corn rose 6 cents to finish at $4.36 after hitting a contract low in earlier trade. USDA said farmers planted 95.3 million acres of corn, up about 5,000 acres from the March 31 estimate and defying analyst expectations for a decline to 94.992 million acres. Plantings are down around 3.5% from 98.8 million acres last year. USDA put nationwide corn stockpiles at 5.295 billion bushels as of June 1, well below the average estimate of 5.408 billion — a figure that represented record implied usage in the third quarter of a marketing year. That put the market focus back on what’s been impressive corn demand. The price action left corn with a “key reversal” to the upside on the daily chart, but bulls will need to follow through in short order to have any confidence a near-term bottom is in place.

Some tepid short covering helped soybeans manage a gain, with November ending 4 3.4 cents higher. U.S. soybean plantings came in at 85.365 million acres, up 665,000 acres from March intentions and 4,000 acres less than analysts expected. Meanwhile, June 1 U.S. soybean stocks stored in all positions totaled 1.06 billion bushels, up 54 million bu. (5%) from year ago and 15 million bushels above trade expectations.

The data was largely friendly for wheat, with September SRW gaining 9 1/2 cents, September HRW up 10 1/2 cents and September spring wheat up 5 3/4 cents. USDA estimated U.S. all-wheat plantings at 42.740 million acres, down 1.035 million acres from March intentions and 1.11 million acres less than analysts expected. Old-crop U.S. wheat stocks on June 1 totaled 920 million bushels, up 63 million bushels (8%) from a year ago but were 14 million bushels below the average pre-report estimate.

With surprises in USDA’s June Grain Stocks report, especially for corn, the question is whether corn demand has been strong than expected or was the 2025 crop simply smaller than originally implied.

According to StoneX Group, implied quarterly demand for U.S. corn reached 3.73 billion bushels, marking an all-time high for the March–May period. Soybean demand also set a record at 1.044 billion bushels, signaling continued strong domestic and export usage across both crops.

In contrast, all wheat demand totaled 380 million bushels, the lowest for the March–May quarter in three years.

USDA’s June Acreage report shows U.S. cotton plantings came in stronger than expected, with growers expanding acres beyond both last year and early-season intentions.

All U.S. cotton planted area is estimated at 9.85 million acres in 2026, up 6% from 2025 and above the March Prospective Plantings estimate of 9.64 million acres.

(USDA NASS )

Upland Leads the Increase

The gains were led by upland cotton, which accounts for the bulk of U.S. production. Upland acres are estimated at 9.70 million acres, also up 6% from last year. An increase in cotton prices this spring may have spurred an increase in acres.

(USDA NASS )

American Pima cotton is estimated at 150,000 acres, also showing a 6% year-over-year increase.

The Southeast Drives Biggest Acreage Gains Compared to 2025

(USDA NASS )

(USDA NASS )

University of Illinois agricultural economist Scott Irwin shared a very long-term look at corn implied-usage surprises — the topic of the day — on X:

USDA’s June Acreage report shows farmers planted 42.7 million acres of wheat this year, which is down 6% from last year. Wheat acres were revised lower from March, driven by winter and durum declines.

(USDA NASS )

Jim McCormick of AgMarket.Net says that is the lowest wheat acreage on record. As a result, wheat prices shot higher after the report.

But there were also a few other key changes in the June Acreage report. McCormick takes a deep dive into the report with Farm Journal’s Michelle Rook.

USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) says the June Acreage report was built on a larger data pool, even as farmer response rates declined year-over-year.

According to NASS, the response rate for this year’s June Acreage survey came in at 39.8%, down from 43.6% a year ago.

However, the agency notes that the lower participation rate was offset by a significant increase in survey coverage. NASS says it expanded the sample size by roughly 35%, giving analysts a substantially larger overall dataset to work with compared to last year. In April, USDA outlined plans to expand farmer surveys.

(USDA NASS)

USDA officials acknowledged during a Kansas City data users meeting this spring that response rates have been slipping across major reports, raising concerns about accuracy after recent acreage revisions. In response, the agency committed to expanding survey coverage, starting with the June Acreage report.

USDA’s June acreage and grain stocks reports triggered a modest rally across grain markets, with wheat posting double-digit gains and corn and soybeans also moving higher.

Bill Watts says the biggest driver was corn stocks, not acreage.

USDA reported corn stocks at 5.29 billion bushels, below the average trade estimate and even under the low end of expectations. That came alongside strong quarterly disappearance, underscoring continued solid demand.

Corn acreage came in at 95.3 million acres, largely in line with expectations and March intentions, offering few surprises on the supply side.

Wheat also drew attention, with historically low acreage at 42.7 million acres, which helped ease some concerns about global supplies.

Watts says the market had already sold off into the report, which left room for upside, but the takeaway was clear: demand remains stronger than expected.

The map below provides a state-by-state breakdown of corn acres and how they changed from the March 31 estimate:

(Pro Farmer/USDA)

USDA’s June 1 Grain Stocks report showed corn inventories remain among the largest on record, but they were smaller than traders expected, helping lift grain markets.

Ben Brown says there are two ways to view the report.

“June 1, 2026 stocks are among the largest on record, slightly below 2018 and 2019 levels and still under the all-time high set in 1987,” Brown says. “But when you compare stocks to last year’s production or demand, supplies are relatively tight. Logistics have improved over time, but this is still a pretty tight stocks situation.”

That tighter supply picture relative to demand helps explain why the market reacted bullishly despite historically large inventories.

(USDA/Pro Farmer)

June 1 corn stocks in all positions totaled 5.29 billion bushels rose 652 million bu. (14%) from year-ago but were 113 million bu. below the average pre-report estimate.

Of the total stocks, 2.96 billion bushels are stored on farms, up 16 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 2.34 billion bushels, are up 12 percent from a year ago. The March - May 2026 indicated disappearance is 3.74 billion bushels, a record for the third quarter of the marketing year and up from 3.50 billion bushels during the same period last year. Residual use of 1.096 billion bushels is the highest since 2019-20 is on pace to topple USDA’s estimate of 6.2 billion bushels for the marketing year.

USDA’s June Acreage survey shows U.S. farmers planted 95.3 million acres of corn in 2026, down 3% from 2025 and unchanged from the March Prospective Plantings report.

Despite the decline, corn acreage remains historically strong, ranking as the fourth-highest since 1944. USDA estimates 87.4 million acres will be harvested for grain, down 4% from last year.

(USDA NASS )

While national acreage held steady from March, USDA found some regional shifts. Farmers in 10 states increased plantings compared to March intentions, with the biggest gains in Arkansas and Mississippi, where dry planting conditions likely influenced final acreage decisions.

Overall, the June report confirms corn acreage largely tracked March intentions, with only modest regional adjustments.

(USDA NASS )

Wheat and corn futures were leading the way higher after USDA data. While corn acres came in higher than expected at 95.343 million, above the average trade estimate and not far off the March 31 Prospective Plantings figure, stocks were 5.29 billion bushels, below the average estimate of 5.408 billion in a pre-report survey by Reuters. December corn was up 5 cents at $4.35 at 11:15 a.m. CT.

USDA put all wheat acres at 42.7 million, down from 43.775 million on March 31 and below the average trade guess of 43.858 million. Old-crop wheat stocks were 920 million bushels, versus expectations for 934 million. September SRW wheat futures rose 8 34 cents, while September HRW was up 13 3/4 cents and September hard red spring wheat gained a dime.

November soybeans caught support from the rally in corn and wheat, up 4 cents. USDA pegged soybean acres at 85.365 million, near the average estimate of 85.369 million and up from the March estimate of 84.7 million. Soybean stocks as of June 1 were 1.06 billion bushels, topping the average forecast of 1.008 billion.

USDA said corn stocks in all positions totaled 5.29 billion bushels as of June 1, that’s up 14% from the same time last year but comes in below the average estimate of 5.408 billion bushels in the Reuters survey.

Soybean stocks were 1.06 billion bushels, up 5% from last year and above the average forecast of 1.046 billion.

Old-crop all wheat stocks totaled 920 million bushels, up 8% from a year ago but below the average trade guess of 934 million.

The acreage numbers get most of the attention in the runup to report day, but quarterly grain stocks have shown an ability to surprise the market in the past.

Corn is likely to continue to struggle with relatively high ending stocks as end users continue to work through the record setting 17 billion bushels harvested last fall, notes Pro Farmer’s Spencer Langford. Analysts expect corn stocks as of June 1 to be 5.41 billion bushels, the highest since 1988 and up 16% from this time last year.

Soybean and wheat stocks are also expected to be higher from year-ago levels, but to a much milder extent. Soybeans are expected to come in at 1.046 billion bushels, up 4% from year-ago, and wheat is estimated at 934 million bushels, up 9%.

(USDA/Pro Farmer)

History shows that soybeans typically see the largest change from the March report, notes Pro Farmer’s Spencer Langford in this report preview.

In absolute terms, acres shift 1.39 million acres on average since 1986. The direction they shift is nearly evenly split over the last 40 years, with 23 instances showing an increase and 17 a decrease. Corn sees slightly less volatility on average, and since 1986 sees an average change of 1.02 million acres from the initial forecast.