China’s pork production is expected to decline 14% in 2022, while pork imports are expected to climb 5.1 metric tons (MT) as consumer demand for pork could exceed domestic production. That’s according to a USDA attaché report from China released late last week. However, the anticipated decline in production doesn’t translate into a reduction in feed demand, according to StoneX Group.
The USDA attaché forecasts overall hog and pork production to decline again next year, with hog production expected to dropping 5% in 2022. With fewer hogs coming to market, China says it expects pork production to decline.
As the country continues to try to recover from the impacts of African swine fever (ASF), Arlan Suderman of StoneX Group says China’s reduction in food waste as a source of feed means soybean meal demand could continue to stay strong, despite the reduction in overall hog herd numbers.
“Our numbers with people on the ground would be that their hog herd is 20% below pre-ASF levels, but yet, we’ve reached the soybean meal demand levels of pre-ASF because of the lack of food waste there,” says Suderman. “So, we see that other 20% is just that much more feed demand to come in there.”
Suderman says China has rebuilt their poultry herd, but he thinks that won’t translate into a reduction for soybean meal or corn as a feed source.
“We see a lot more protein requirements coming and demand for soy meal, and that also means demand for corn, as well,” adds Suderman. “Their goal is to be 95% self sufficient on corn, we think it’s probably going to be more like 85%. That means a lot more corn imports in the years ahead, but they’re not going to just buy from us either. They’re going to be pulling from Ukraine, and probably eventually Brazil as well.”
The USDA attaché also showed signs of cattle and beef production in China seeing slow growth. The report shows cattle imports to hold stead at 350,000 head. Beef imports are expected to grow, but at a slower rate, and reach 3.3 MT.
