John Dillard: The Potential Time Bomb of African Swine Fever
African swine fever (ASF) is a nasty bug and it’s getting closer to the U.S. The highly contagious viral infection doesn’t infect humans, but it is 100% fatal to hogs.
Countries where the virus has struck have seen their pork industry massively devastated. It is estimated Chinese farmers lost up to half of their hog outputs to the virus in 2018 and 2019. A significant part of the uptick in Chinese grain and soybean meal demand can be attributed to the country’s efforts to rebuild their herds using modern production systems.
In September, USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service announced ASF has been found in the Dominican Republic. Given its shared border, it’s assumed ASF has also made its way to Haiti.
Researchers are learning how the virus can be transmitted, but it is believed it can be spread through feral hogs, vehicle and human traffic between farms and feed.
HOPE ON THE HORIZON
There is reason for hope on the horizon. On Sept. 30, USDA’s Agricultural Research Service announced its scientists have developed a vaccine candidate that proved effective at preventing ASF. USDA will be working with a private sector company to make the vaccine commercially available at scale.
It will be a race against the clock to get the vaccine into the U.S. swine herd and, hopefully, we can pull it off. If we can’t, it will be painfully disruptive with effects that extend well beyond hog producers.
As with prior outbreaks, we can expect some export markets to close their markets to U.S. pork if the virus is identified. We can also expect some export markets will seek to limit export sales to pork derived from regions with no ASF infections.
ASF PROTOCOLS
If ASF is detected in a region, the movement of hogs, feed, vehicles and people between operations will likely be limited. Increased biosecurity measures will be instituted. This could include biosecurity- minded routes for trucks hauling grain as well as heat treatment for feed before it is shipped to farms.
Grain and meal exports may be subject to quarantine requirements. This will add extra costs and delays in a time where there is already a shortage of trucks and drivers.
If ASF reaches our shores, USDA and state agencies will need to play a major role in coordinating the response to any ASF outbreak. This should include:
- Guidance to hog producers and related industries on how to contain the outbreak.
- A workable program to ensure carcasses are disposed of properly and quickly.
- An indemnification program to compensate growers for their losses.
- A plan to quickly ramp up production and distribution of effective vaccines.
John DIllard No stranger to dirty boots, John Dillard, an attorney with OFW Law, focuses his practice on agricultural and environmental litigation.
