The past year has been tumultuous in the world of ag machinery, with falling sales, manufacturer layoffs, plants closing and dealerships shutting down. Meanwhile, equipment prices keep rising. No one knows this world better than Machinery Pete, who offers some surprising observations on the latest episode of the Unscripted podcast.
For instance, he thinks 2025 could be a good year to invest in late-model used equipment. He points to the amount of zero- to three-year-old equipment sold at auction this year, which is up 399% versus the first year of the most recent ag downturn in 2014.
“Dealers have been more aggressive than I’ve ever seen them,” he tells Unscripted’s co-hosts Tyne Morgan and Clinton Griffiths. “They hate doing it and they’re taking huge losses, but if they keep the equipment on the lot then they’re paying eight percent interest so they’re taking them out to auction.”
The key to getting a good deal, he says, is acting quickly. History might tell farmers that tough times will provide leverage to buyers, but in the current sales climate, that advantage won’t last as long as it has in the past. “The rate of turn on late model used equipment is 400% higher than it was a decade ago,” Peterson says. “While 2025 will be a good buying opportunity for people, this whole thing is going to turn faster. Timing is everything.”
The key difference in today’s marketplace from past boom-and-bust cycles is that manufacturers and dealers are now tighter in their communication, he explains on the podcast. “They want to sell new, but they’re focused on attacking problem one,” he says. “I’ve never seen this big of an emphasis before. They have a mission to smash out late model used inventory.”
That focus should work in the buyer’s favor in 2025, but, again, he believes the advantage won’t last long. When that inventory is gone, prices on new equipment will be even higher. In the 35 years that he’s been watching and reporting on the ag equipment market, Machinery Pete has seen many changes and cycles. While predicting the future is never a sure thing, he feels certain that those changes and cycles will occur more quickly than ever before.
Watch the full episode of Unscripted.
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