If you’re thinking about buying a new or used tractor soon, you might want to move up your timeline. That’s because prices are expected to rise in the high horsepower segment over the next few months.
Currently, the tractor segment in North America is a bit of a mixed bag: High horsepower tractors are seeing decent demand from farmers while sales of lower horsepower models are in decline. Major manufacturers have responded accordingly to overall lower demand for new machines by pulling back on production. This has led to new machine delivery delays and an uptick in farmer interest in the used market.
Speaking of the used market, the auction circuit is also seeing increases in tractor prices, as farmers are bullish on commodity prices and the country’s midsection is thawing out from a long, cold winter, which was an ice-covered albatross holding back equipment sales.
“I think we’re seeing a little shaking loose of the purse strings,” says Machinery Pete on the latest Moving Iron podcast. “I’ve been talking about it for a few months now, but you must be careful of assuming the slow playout like we’ve seen in other downturns in terms of used equipment supply because dealers were so aggressive over the last 18 months pushing stuff out to auction. Given the stronger prices now, I wonder if that will jar dealers to be more (price) aggressive this spring and into the summer?”
Seymour agrees, adding right now the used tractor market “feels a lot like 2008, 2009.”
“Back then manufacturers were slow to ramp back up after the Great Recession, and we’re seeing that now, expect now both (manufacturers and dealers) are a hesitant,” he says. “The dealers are hesitant to get a whole lot full of brand new stuff, because they have a whole lot full of stuff already. And the manufacturers have pulled back so far that it’s going to take a while for them to ramp back up.”
Those factors could push the used equipment market into a position that Seymour calls “a little more healthy, little more strong” and that means used tractor prices moving higher for the near term.
Machinery Pete shared a couple examples from recent auctions that show used equipment prices edging higher:
- At a recent retirement auction in Monroe City, Ind., a 2017 John Deere 8370R (383 hours) tractor sold for $291,250. That’s the highest auction price for the model since December of 2023.
- A well-maintained 2007 John Deere 9620 tractor with 1,860 hours on it went for $185,250 at the same Indiana auction. That is the highest auction price for that model since January 2023.
- It’s not just the tractor segment: a 2023 New Holland CR 1090 combine with only 490 engine hours went for a record haul of $372,250. Machinery Pete says that is the highest price he’s recorded on a used New Holland combine, ever.
“I think as we watch 2025 progress those price points are going to start to come together with the supply and demand curves,” Seymour adds. “Like we were talking about earlier you’re going to see (used equipment values) get a lot more stable, a lot more strong. And as those things progress into 2026 again, I think you’re going to see some flow in demand as far as ordering new goes.”
Where Are Row Crop Tractor Prices Headed?
Kyle Schneider with Stoltz Equipment, a 25-outlet John Deere spread out across the western U.S., and used equipment specialist Aaron Fintel with 21st Century Equipment (another John Deere dealer) joined the podcast to dive further into row crop tractor (175+ hp) sales trends.
Schneider admits he is seeing some plateauing, or flattening, take hold. But there is also some up-and-down roller coaster action at play, he adds. In his experience, buyers in the late winter to early spring market seem to track alongside the weather: On warm days dealership phone lines are blowing up, then when it gets cold again for a spell, the phones are pretty quiet.
“We’ve gone through some ebbs and flows of what’s going to move and what’s not in terms of horsepower range,” he says. “The lower horsepower range is dropping off, and the higher horsepower range is steady and bringing in what you want.”
Fintel agrees with that assessment.
“I would say maybe that first weekend of February was a little quiet and then the last two weeks has really opened things up,” he adds.
The trio found common ground around the prediction that prices for used tractors will increase over the next few months as dealers work to hit that sweet spot between churning through inventory while getting proper value for the machines on their lots.
Commodity Outlook: Strong
Analyst Sean Hackett with Hackett Financial joined the podcast to give a quick update on what’s happening in the world of row crop commodities.
He predicts a coming cycle of atmospheric instability could lead to a warm March and then a rush of cold air coming down from the North Pole, leading to a wet and cold spring planting season as the calendar turns to April.
“That should create an unfavorable planting season, either in delayed planting or planting that gets done and then it gets frozen over and now we’re replanting winter wheat,” Hackett says.
It wasn’t all pessimism from Hackett, though. He did offer a glimpse of hope for the months ahead.
“It’s not going to be that bad of a year,” he says. “There’s going to be a tremendous cash selling opportunity not only for the old crop but maybe even for the new crop. We’ll have to watch that very closely and see what the markets do. But the thought process that the North American ag economy is dead for 2025 seems to have been over embellished.”
Hackett wraps up with a review of global commodity market conditions in Asia and South America. He also thinks this year’s U.S. corn crop could be one of the largest of all time at 96 million or more acres planted, but he, like the rest of us, is waiting for the first USDA planting intentions report for 2025 to confirm that belief.
