Potential China Deal, New Trade Pacts Brighten U.S. Soybean Outlook

Comments by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Sunday indicate China will come to the meeting with President Trump on Thursday ready to strike a deal and make “substantial purchases” of U.S. soybeans.

“Soybean farmers are going to be extremely happy with this deal for this year and for the coming years,” Bessent said yesterday on the CBS public affairs show, Face The Nation.

American Soybean Association (ASA) President Caleb Ragland responded to Bessent’s comments in a statement that, “signals of purchase commitments are a positive step” and soybean producers are “hopeful they result in a trade deal that delivers results.”

Purdue Ag Economist Michael Langemeier says he believes a trade agreement with China can be reached.

“It makes sense to me, because we are such a big player, that we still have a place at the table in terms of selling soybeans to China, because [the Chinese] don’t want to completely rely on one country,” Langemeier says.

Jerry Gulke tells Farm Journal he thinks China needs U.S. soybeans to bridge a gap that will occur between the time the U.S. harvest ends and Brazil’s harvest starts.

“There’s some talk that they need about 10 million metric tons (MMT). That’s about 300 million bushels. And that’s about the deficit that would really help us,” says Gulke, president of the Gulke Group.

While Langemeier believes a trade deal can be reached, he doesn’t think the scope of the trade agreements U.S. has had with China will go back to previous levels. He anticipates Brazil will continue to capture a large percentage of China’s soybean business.

USDA reports Brazil produced a record soybean crop in 2025 of 169 MMT.

The increasing scope of the South American crop is one reason why Langemeier emphasizes the need to continue increasing domestic demand for U.S. soybeans.

“It’s a slow process, and it can’t absorb billions of bushels, but it can help long-term support a large acreage of soybeans in the U.S.,” he says.

Additional Trade Agreements In The Works
On Sunday, ASA announced the U.S. signed two trade deals with Malaysia and Cambodia as well as a framework for reciprocal trade with Vietnam and Thailand.

As part of these announcements, the White House has noted multiple provisions favorable to U.S. soybean exports, including:

• The elimination or reduction of tariff barriers for U.S. agricultural products into all four countries
• A commitment from Thailand to purchase U.S. soybean meal, among other U.S. feed commodities, on a per annum basis totaling $2.6 billion
• The elimination or reduction of major non-tariff barriers in each country, including favorable language on biotechnology regulations, sanitary and phytosanitary provisions (SPS), and other non-tariff barriers.

Farmers Face Major Storage, Selling Decisions
While U.S. farmers are finishing up the 2025 harvest, most are trying to decide how much and where to store the crop until prices show some improvement.

Langemeier said there will be a need for farmers to make some sales this fall to meet cash flow demand. They’ll then store whatever they can until at least the first of the year – though that decision could change quickly, if a trade deal with China is struck.

“Certainly, storing a part of that [soybean] crop if you can afford to do until till we have a little bit more information on where prices are going to settle for the 2025 crop, would be a prudent strategy,” he says.

If no deal is struck with China, or it’s small, he encourages farmers to not hang onto the crop too long.

“My caveat there is, if things don’t look a little bit better by April and May be ready to sell them,” he says.

The Outlook For 2026 Acreage
Langemeier says there are few to no new production options for row crop farmers in the Midwest to embrace for next year.

“So, when push comes to shove with the plantings in 2026 you’re still looking at about 180 million acres of corn and soybeans,” he anticipates.

If the export outlook for soybeans doesn’t improve, more acres will go to corn because demand is strong despite low prices.

“Corn is firing on all cylinders with good demand from ethanol, good demand from the feed industry, and good demand from exports,” he says.