Looking ahead to 2025’s growing season, StoneX’s Josh Linville understands why farmers have delayed fertilizer buys to see if product prices come down. But he doesn’t advise being too optimistic.
“I know a lot of people are dragging their feet, hoping for better days. I fully appreciate that,” he says. “ It’s not a great situation today, but there’s a lot of global situations going on with the nitrogen market that’s going to keep its foot basically on the gas pedal. So I’m afraid we’re going to see worse before we get better there.”
When it comes to phosphate prices, those are “insanely high” as Linville analyzes the product price ratios to grain prices.
“Again, don’t really expect to see anything phenomenal happen as far as downside pricing before spring season,” he says.
And he adds, “Assuming the corn price holds, we will set the all-time high ratio in January/February. And that’s over the top of 2021, 2022 and even 2008.
To find a longer-term silver lining in the phosphate market, Linville looks to recent changes in Florida regulations.
“Phosphate rock reserves aren’t very easy to find. But there is a lot of phosphate out of the state of Florida,” he says. “And there’s been environmental pushback to the byproduct gypsum stacks. But they just approved to use some of those stocks of product to put into roadways, so one of your biggest environmental issues might start going away as they find a use for it.”
He says something to watch would be if they expand production grounds down there.
On the flip side of nitrogen and phosphate, Linville shares insights on the potash market, which with more production coming online globally, is quite a different dynamic.
“Potash is the only major input I can point to and say that’s at least looking good when you look at the price historically, because it’s fairly low looking at it versus grain,” Linville says. “And with more coming online globally, we can almost have a discussion on whether or not potash is oversupplied globally. And that’s a great thing for farmers.”
Hear more from Linville in this week’s AgriTalk interview:
And you can attend his breakout session during the 2025 Top Producer Summit!
