This guest commentary comes from Garland West, a journalist who has spent four decades immersed in the complex world of food and agriculture, as both a profession and a personal passion. As a contributing writer to Dirt to Dinner , he applies that experience and keen interest in all things food-related to focus on our modern global food system, sustainability and other timely topics. He and his wife, Nancy, today reside deep within in the Blue Ridge Mountains, where they maintain an animal sanctuary. Learn more about Dirt to Dinner at https://www.dirt-to-dinner.com/
USDA projects net farm income to be down almost $9 billion in 2021, or about 7% from last year. Much of that decline is due to the loss of the $21 billion or so from Washington as compensation in 2020 for the lost market opportunities tied to our international trade tiff with China. That’s on top of rising production costs facing farmers everywhere. Clearly, the income squeeze is still part of day-to-day life for American agriculture.
Maybe it’s just me. But the story isn’t all doom and gloom.
USDA also projects ag exports to rebound from the low levels of recent years to $152 billion in 2021. That’s up from the $135 to $136 billion levels we saw a couple of years back. So, it’s not a small playground pick-up game sort of basketball rebound but a truly big-league, NBA All-Star game style rebound.
To me, it highlights the importance of looking to the markets rather than the federal printing presses for our farm prosperity. The farmers I know sure prefer to earn their money rather than have it handed to them. I suspect more and more people recognize that trade is a big, big part of a healthy farm economy. And in my opinion, we have lots of reasons to be optimistic.
There’s a new approach to trade in Washington these days. Confrontation gives way to a greater focus on cooperation and working multilaterally to find areas of mutual interest and benefit. We are all waiting eagerly to see how our potential allies and trade partners will respond to this philosophy. But it’s a great starting point.
Just as important, the markets are working for us, not against us. China remains the big dog in global ag trade, and their demand remains strong and growing over time. The Chinese are, above all, practical, and they know they need trade as much as we do. Food security continues to be – and always will be – a primary concern. Globally, we’re seeing robust demand for what American producers do better than anyone else – which is to produce an astounding array of commodities and food products that sustain life everywhere. They produce them efficiently – and sustainably.
We tend to overlook how important that advantage is to us. Farmers and ranchers have stayed “economically viable” – as economists put it – by working both hard and smart. They constantly seek to improve in every aspect of what they do. They have invested billions in infrastructure, equipment, technology, and all the tools that drive productivity improvements – and respond to the rising interest we all have in protecting our environment and dealing with the dangers of climate change. This special attitude gives the American ag system a real edge.
I’m a trade optimist. I see it not just rebounding in the years ahead but becoming even more important to U.S. ag interests. I sure hope I’m right. And I think I am.
Let’s get back to the basketball metaphor. I recall the words of Charles Barkley, one of the greats in basketball from my generation. “Sir Charles” is widely known for a brash, direct way of saying what he thinks. I was quite taken with one of his comments a few years back when a fellow sports analyst challenged him on one of his assertions. “I could be wrong,” he said gravely, with a slight pause for effect before finishing his thought: “But I’m not.”
When it comes to trade, I’m with Sir Charles.
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