U.S. has seen consistent growth in ag exports to Mexico under NAFTA and USMCA. In 2022, the U.S. exported 38.9 MMT of ag products to Mexico with a value of $28.5 billion, showing significant growth since NAFTA started in 1994 with exports of 13.4 MMT and $4.67 billion.
Over the 29 years of free trade, U.S. ag exports to Mexico increased both in terms of volume and value, although there were some years where growth was not positive.
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Trade value growth stagnated during the mid and late 2010s, despite volume growth. This is thought to be due to the decreased per unit export value of several major commodities. Nevertheless, value grew significantly over time, as shown in Chart 1: U.S. Ag Exports to Mexico, 1989-2023.
While the USMCA coincided with a sudden rise in value in 2020, the pandemic and high inflation were likely factors in this growth.
Texas has contributed to the overall growth of U.S. ag exports to Mexico, accounting for 19% ($5.55 billion) of total U.S. ag exports in 2022. Chart 2: U.S. Ag Exports to Mexico, 1989-2023 demonstrates how Texas’ export values have increased in 13 of the past 20 years, while the U.S. as a whole increased in 15 of the past 20 years.
