USDA shocked the market with the August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE), in particular the record corn yield of 188.8 bu., which was well above trade guesses and nearly 10 bu. above last year.
But they also surprisingly raised harvested acres pushing corn ending stocks back over 2 billion bushels. The report was more friendly for soybeans with a net decrease in carryout.
U.S. Corn Yields Record 188.8
The August WASDE was record setting, as USDA pegged U.S. corn yield at 188.8 bu. per acre. That is up 7.8 bu. from July and 9.5 bu. from 2024.
Production was also a record 16.7 billion bushels.
“It’s a shock. The total production number was up a billion bushels versus last month,” says Joe Vaclavik, Standard Grain.
Most major corn production states saw record yields with Iowa at 222 bu., up 11 bu. from last year. Illinois was at 221 bu., up 4 bu., Minnesota was up 28 bu., Indiana up 7 bu. and Nebraska up 4 bu.
“They’ve got record corn yields projected in a whole bunch of states, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota, Missouri, South Dakota and a couple others. So, I mean across the I-states and a few other big corn growers as well,” Vaclavik says.
USDA Also Increased Harvested Corn Acres
The double whammy was an increase in corn harvested acres by 1.9 million, based on Farm Service Agency (FSA) and National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) data, which Vaclavik says is a rare change in August.
“And they used that data to come to this conclusion that planted corn acreage was in fact, a couple million higher than what they had predicted or guessed in the past. So that’s the one that surprised me,” Vaclavik says.
Corn Ending Stocks Back Over 2 Billion
That raised ending stocks to 2.117 billion bushels, but it would have been worse if USDA had not raised usage to a record 16 billion bushels.
“So, we raised corn production by a billion bushels month over month, the estimate,” Vaclavik says. “We raised demand by about 500 million but it’s going to be tough to get to those demand numbers.”
However, corn yield was not based on field data but on satellite imagery and farmer surveys. Vaclavik says while he’s not sure if this is the biggest yield of the season, he also points out the crop isn’t in the bin yet.
Is This the Highest Corn Yield of the Season?
“Now, it’s early, and we saw just last year, USDA overstated the yield in August, so anything’s possible,” Vaclavik says. “You know, there have been some weather issues. Some people might say rainfall has been excessive in some areas of the Corn Belt. Some people might say that nighttime temperatures have been too warm there are absolutely issues that could come back to bite this crop but for now USDA is working with a very, very high production number.”
USDA also estimated soybean yield at a record 53.6 bu., up 1.1 bu. from July and nearly 3 bu. from last year. But with harvested acres lowered by 2.4 million, USDA lowered production 43 million bushels and ending stocks 20 million to 290.
USDA Raises Soybean Yield, Lowers Ending Stocks
“It was a friendly issue report,” Vaclavik says. “I mean, you’re looking at a big yield number 53.6, but you’ve got to carry out projection sub-300 stocks-to-use projection sub 7%. The crush demand number, I believe it. It’s gonna happen. It might be too low. Exports are the question mark on the demand side of the new crop balance sheet. We haven’t sold anything to China yet.”
Wheat production was nearly unchanged at 1.927 billion bushels but with higher exports, carryout was lowered 21 million to 869 million bushels.
