USDA Weekly Export Sales: Corn Sales Strong; China Cancels Pork

Demand and weather updates are two key factors ahead for most commodity markets. While this space would never try to forecast something harder than even this Congress, the weather, the following are highlights of the USDA Weekly Export Sales report for the week ended July 7, along with our comments:

Wheat sales, old-crop bean sales under expectations


NOTE: This column is copyrighted material; therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws.


Demand and weather updates are two key factors ahead for most commodity markets. While this space would never try to forecast something harder than even this Congress, the weather, the following are highlights of the USDA Weekly Export Sales report for the week ended July 7, along with our comments:

Crop

Net Sales
in thousand tonnes; cotton in thousand running bales

Expectations
in thousand tonnes

Comments

Wheat

2016/17: 317.7
2017/18: 0.0
Total: 317.7

400-600 – 2016/17

· Disappointing on wheat sales after recent flurry..

· Hard to build big sales when only one buyer picked up 50,000 tonnes or more – Mexico at 66,923 tonnes.

· Brazil bought 30,000 tonnes and China bought 3,000 tonnes.

· US export commitments for 2016/17 are 35% ahead of year-ago.

· Compared with USDA’s official projections, wheat export commitments for 2016/17 were at 35% of projected exports while accumulated exports are at 9% of the projected total for the 2016/17 marketing year.

Corn

2015/16: 667.8
2016/17: 687.8
Total: 1,355.6

350-550 – 2015/16
450-650 – 2016/17

· Beat expectations on both old- and new-crop sales.

· Japan the lead known destination at 231,353 tonnes, followed by South Korea at 189,969 tonnes and Peru at 162,088 tonnes.

· New crop sales led by Mexico (258,458 tonnes) and Japan (198,000 tonnes).

· US corn export commitments for 2015/16 are 3% ahead of year-ago.

· Compared with official USDA projections, corn export commitments for 2015/16 are at 99% of projected exports while accumulated exports are at 76% of the projected total for the 2015/16 marketing year.

Soybeans

2015/16: 364.2
2016/17: 547.0
Total: 911.2

400-600 - 2015/16
500-700 – 2016/17

· Old-crop sales missed the mark while new-crop was at the low end of expectations.

· China easily the lead buyer for both old crop (279,588 tonnes) and new-crop (300,000 tonnes). The Netherlands bought 86,134 tonnes for 2015/16.

· US soybean export commitments for 2015/16 are 2% ahead of year-ago.

· Compared with official USDA projections, soybean export commitments for 2015/16 currently stand at 106% of projected exports while accumulated exports 91% of the projected total for the 2015/16 marketing year.

Other Highlights

Pork: China did buy 193 tonnes of US pork but cancelled 3,170 tonnes for net reductions of 2,977 tonnes for the week. Pared their outstanding total to 125,070 tonnes, still second largest buyer. Japan bought 3,642 tonnes but cancelled 837 tonnes to put their net buys at 2,805 tonnes. Mexico’s net buys reflected new sales of 3,599 tonnes but cancellations of 1,433 tonnes for net sales of 2,166 tonnes.

Sorghum: China continues to book US sorghum, buying a total of 86,300 tonnes. But Colombia cancelled purchases of 25,000 tonnes of US sorghum, paring net sales for the week to 42,800 tonnes. Mexico also cancelled 1,000 tonnes of sorghum purchases.

· 2015/16 highlights.

· Corn exports have been over 1 million tonnes now for 6 straight weeks and 15 of the last 16 weeks.

· Customers starting to even up sales positions ahead of end of 2015/16 marketing year as Japan cancelled 62,800 tonnes of US corn purchases and Mexico cancelled 34,700 tonnes.

2016/17 highlights:

· There were cancellations of 62,000 tonnes of corn sales, but no country was listed.


NOTE: This column is copyrighted material; therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws.

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