Since April 2, when President Dondald Trump revealed his plans for assessing tariffs as part of his trade policy, the initial numbers presented have been adjusted, updated, paused or, in the case of China, increased.
“We’re only 15 days into this. It feels like a year, right?” says Matt Clark senior rural economy analyst. “I catch myself feeling very overwhelmed by the news flow, a lot has happened in 15 days.”
Clark provides perspective by zooming out and answering the question: What do we think we know?
“We know a handful of things,” he says. Here are three takeaways Clark shares so far:
1. The 10% baseline tariff
This excludes some countries such as Mexico and Canada, and the USMCA agreement covers all of those goods included.
“Things that are not covered under USMCA and are not in the exempt list that the president issued on April 2, those have a different tariff — the 25% tariff on it,” Clark says. “There is a carve out for energy and potash which is on that 10%, so there’s a little carve out there.”
2. China is a whole other ballpark
While trade deals with other countries are still being considered and the tariff rates are discussed as negotiable, the exception so far appears to be China, where the tariffs continue to increase.
“It’s a big tariff number, and with China it seems that’s a place we’re drawing a line in the sand,” Clark says.
3. What could come after the 90-day pause
“The cyclical tariffs have been paused for 90 days while we’re going through negotiations,” Clark says. “We don’t know how serious all the negotiations are, or what stages they are. It sounds like some are reportedly going along very well.”
The unknown variables surrounding what the president’s team considers to be trade milestones during the pause bring uncertainty. Clark says it’s possible the pause could be extended. He also notes we don’t know how success with the trade deals is being measured, but Clark says the president seems focused on two things so far.
“Steel, aluminum and automobiles, are a sticking point, as is China. Those are really sticking — the rest seems to be a little bit more flexible,” Clark says.
So what individual country deals should agriculture watch?
Clark is keeping on eye on how the administration talks about India, Japan, South Korea and more. He also recently published a report on the BRICS countries, and what their demographic trends mean for the future of agricultural trade. You can hear more in this segment from “AgriTalk":
