Are Grains Gearing Up For a Seasonal Low?

Grain markets are showing some signs of life in the overnight and early morning trade, is a seasonal low coming sooner rather than later?

Blue Line Futures is a futures and commodities brokerage firm providing actionable proprietary research and a trade desk to speak with as much or as little as you want.

Corn

News

  • Not a lot of new news this morning as market participants keep a close eye on technicals and money flow.

Technicals (December)

The corn market was little changed yesterday as it once again bumped its head against resistance from 489-491. The Bulls want to see a close above this pocket to spur a round of short covering that could take prices back near the psychologically significant $5.00 level. A failure to get out above resistance likely keeps the market in a nearly 2-month trading range. We continue to believe there are great shorter-term opportunities on both sides of the market but feel the market may be attempting to mark higher lows and higher highs. A close above resistance would confirm that.

Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 489-491***, 502-506 1/2***

Pivot: 472-476

Support: 460-464 1/2**

Seasonal Tendencies

Below is a look at historical seasonality’s (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).

Soybeans

News

  • A flash sale was reported yesterday morning: 265,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2023/2024 marketing year.

Technicals (November)

November soybeans traded into our proprietary 3-star support pocket yesterday which we have had defined as 1247-1257. In yesterday’s report we wrote: “We believe that will act as pretty strong support on the first test.”. That pocket did indeed act as strong support and has propelled the market back to our pivot pocket from 1280-1285. If the market can get over this hurdle we could see the market work back to the technically and psychologically significant $13.00 level. We have moved our short-term bias from outright Neutral into Bullish territory.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance: 1300-1304***, 1322-1328****

Pivot: 1280-1285

Support: 1247-1257***

Seasonal Tendencies

Below is a look at seasonal averages VS this year’s price (black line) for November soybeans (updated each Monday).

Wheat

News

  • A flash sale was reported yesterday morning: 220,000 metric tons of soft red winter wheat for delivery to China during the 2023/2024 marketing year.

Technicals (December)

December Chicago wheat futures attempted to find some follow-through buying in yesterday’s trade but it was rather lackluster. That muted momentum has so far led to some overnight and early morning pressure.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 585-587**, 595-599 1/2***, 612-616****

Pivot: 570

Support: 540-541 1/2**

Seasonal Tendencies

Below is a look at seasonal averages VS this year’s price (black line) for November soybeans (updated each Monday).

AgWeb-Logo crop
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