Are These Recent Rallies A Christmas Present Or Are They Sustainable Long Term?

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Market Commentary for 12/17/21

Bean Outlook

This week beans pushed to their highest level in two and half months. Many farmers were ready to make a sale as beans approached $13, so this may have put some pressure on the market late Friday.

The rally was likely due to dry weather concern in the southern third of Brazil’s growing area. Two-week forecasts indicate limited precipitation, and many traders think it might cause a yield reduction. Over the next 60 days most of Brazil will be in the heart of the flowering stage and the beginning of the fill stage. Therefore, any updated weather forecast could force the market to swing violently either direction.

Corn Outlook

Corn approached $6 on the same dry weather concerns in southern Brazil, where about 40% of their first corn crop is grown and is reaching the pollination stage. Similar to beans, many farmers were ready to make additional sales at the $6 price point.

However, Brazil’s first crop only accounts for about 25% of total corn production, so overall production may not be impacted much. Some are also concerned that one third of Argentina’s corn producing region has only received half the usual rainfall for this 30-day time period of the year. However, they are still in the early growth stages there and half of their crop still needs to be planted. Argentina’s major growing period for corn will not start for at least another month.

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