Cattle Futures Remain Resilient
Live Cattle
Technicals (April- J)
April live cattle futures continued to consolidate within our support and resistance levels, shown in the chart below. It had been feeling like the market was building up for a bigger directional move, but with the shot clock starting to wind down in April futures and volume pick up in June, our optimism is wanning, not to mention bearish seasonal tendencies coming into play (June live cattle seasonal chart below). The sideways trade keeps technical levels intact for tomorrow’s trade. Next week will be taking a more focused look at June futures. If you have questions about that beforehand, please reach out to the trade desk, we are monitoring all contracts we just have a limited time to write each day (and don’t want to bore you to death).
Boxed beef was firm yet again with choice cuts 1.71 higher to 310.59 and select cuts .72 higher to 299.60. Daily slaughter was reported at 122,000 head, about 4.5k less than the same day last year.
Resistance: 189.10-190.275***
Pivot: 187.30-188.05
Support: 186.30-186.90*, 183.15-183.45
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonality’s (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line). Seasonally we start to see June futures soften up, but if you’ve been watching cattle at all over the last year you know that seasonals tendencies tend to have had a lower correlation this year.
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net buyers of about 8k futures and options contracts, extending their net long position for the seventh consecutive week, now sitting roughly 59.3k contracts long. Typically, we would view this as a relatively Neutral/Bullish position. This is about half of the length they had when prices peaked last Fall.
See the full report with Lean Hogs and Feeder Cattle on our website: Cattle Futures Remain Resilient - Blue Line Futures
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