Grain futures came out of the gates strong last night but are retreating as weather forecasts continue to change. This is to be expected this time of year. There is a USDA report tomorrow, but weather forecasts this week will likely have a bigger impact on prices. We will have estimates out later this afternoon. Corn Commitments of Traders Update: Friday’s CoT report showed Managed Money were net sellers of 55,748 futures/options contracts through July 5th. 30,446 was long liquidation and 25,302 were new shorts. This shrinks the net long position to 172,867 futures/options. Broken down, that is 244,288 longs VS 71,421 shorts. This is the smallest position they’ve held since October 2020. If you’re new to grain trading, you may think that funds nearly always hold a net long position (like they do in live cattle). That couldn’t be further from the truth. Technicals: Corn futures were 16 cents higher last week and are taking on another 16+ cents on in the Sunday night/Monday morning trade. Early last week we moved our bias from Bearish territory to Bullish territory, siting significant support levels and an extreme low in the RSI. Alone, those are not enough to outright flip our bias, but together it was. The market gaped higher to start this week’s trade. This has taken prices back to the secondary breakdown point from June 30th, near 650. Last week we talked about this area being a potential selling opportunity for those who exited shorts or initiated longs against support last week. That thesis is still in play, moving our bias back into Bearish territory .....Sign up for your FREE two-week trial of our daily commodity commentary! Bias: Previous Session Bias: Resistance: Pivot: Support: |
