Daily Livestock Commentary (8.15.22)

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Cattle

Daily Cutout Values

Choice: 263.37, UP .27 from the previous day.

Select: 239.59 Up 2.13 from the previous day.

Choice/Select Spread: 23.78

5 Area Average Cattle Price

Live Steer: 144.34

Live Heifer: 143.69

Dressed Steer: 229.95

Dressed Heifer: 229.88

Daily Slaughter

Estimated at 118,000. 3,000 more than last week and 2,000 more than the same week last year.

Feeder Cattle Index

8/11/2022: 178.28

8/10/2022: 178.06

Commitments of Traders Update

Live Cattle

Friday’s Commitments of Traders report showed that Managed Money were net buyers of 11,067 futures/options contracts through August 9th. This expands their net long position to 49,072 contracts.

Feeder Cattle

Friday’s Commitments of Traders report showed that Managed Money were net buyers of 668 futures/options contracts through August 9th. This puts them net long 479 contracts.

Technical Snapshot

Live Cattle

October live cattle gave back some ground on Friday, but all in all it was a constructive week with the market posting higher lows and higher highs. The market managed to work itself back into the gap from April 25th but was unable to fill that gap completely. The topside of the gap comes in at 145.975. Outside markets are under pressure this morning on the back of bearish news from China. This may put a headwind in prices to start the new week of trade. Previous resistance will act as our pivot pocket that comes in from 142.75-143.75. The Bulls have the technical advantage until we see a breakdown back below this pocket.

Resistance: 145.10-145.975****, 147.35-147.50**

Pivot: 142.75-143.75

Support: 141.425-141.90***, 138.025-138.35****

Feeder Cattle

October feeder cattle butted up against the top end of the February trading range but were unable to achieve a full-blown breakout. The market bulled back the support channel. Resistance above and support below are converging, which could give us a bigger directional move in the not to distant future.

Resistance: 188.75-189.00****

Pivot: 184.05-185.00

Support: 180.85-181.20***, 179.40**, 173.60-174.285***, 169.40-170.325****

Lean Hogs

Daily Direct Hogs Plant Delivered (as of 1:30 PM CT)

Carcass Base Price

Range: 114.00-136.00

Weighted Average: 123.69

Change from Prior Day: 2.32

Head Count: 6,089

Daily Hog Slaughter

440,000. Down 12,000 from last week and 24,000 from last year.

Commitments of Traders Update

Friday’s Commitments of Traders report showed that Managed Money were net buyers of 8,402 futures/options contracts through August 9th. This expands their net long position to 65,153 contracts

Technical Snapshot

October lean hogs made new contract highs on Thursday, but it really lacked conviction. The lack of conviction helped spark some moderate profit taking on Friday. Bearish news from China has put some weakness into the outside markets, this may spill into hogs to start the week. If the market does experience weakness, a retracement to last week’s breakout point would be the first downside objective,

Resistance: 101.65**

Pivot: 100.375-100.825

Support: 98.05-98.25***, 96.775-97.525***, 94.30-95.30***

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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.