Daily Livestock Commentary (8.16.22)

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Cattle Summary

Daily Cutout Values

Choice: 264.46, Up 1.09 from the previous day.

Select: 239.72, Up .13 from the previous day.

Choice/Select Spread: 24.74

5 Area Average Cattle Price

Live Steer: 144.39

Live Heifer: 143.70

Dressed Steer: 229.93

Dressed Heifer: 229.86

Daily Slaughter

Estimated at 124,000. 5,000 more than last week and 6,000 more than the same week last year.

Feeder Cattle Index

8/12/2022: 179.04

8/11/2022: 178.28

Technical Snapshot

Live Cattle

October live cattle held well early in the session but gave up ground as the day continued. The Pullback brought prices back into our pivot pocket from 142.75-143.75. In yesterday’s report we noted that “The Bulls have the technical advantage until we see a breakdown back below this pocket.”. A failure to defend this level in today’s session could lead to a retest of trendline support and three major moving averages. All of these indicators come in from 141.35-141.90. With so many indicators converging in one pocket, we are labeling this as a MUST HOLD level.

Resistance: 145.10-145.975****, 147.35-147.50**

Pivot: 142.75-143.75

Support: 141.35-141.90****, 138.025-138.35****

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Feeder Cattle

October feeder cattle attempted to rally yesterday but finished the session lower, pulling back and defending the low end of the recent range as as well as a trendline support channel. This area is labeled as our pivot pocket. A failure to hold ground here could spark some selling pressure which could take us back in the neighborhood of 180.85-181.40. This pocket represents the 50-day moving average and other previously important price points, including the breakout point from July 12th.

Resistance: 188.75-189.00****

Pivot: 184.05-185.00

Support: 180.85-181.40****, 179.40**, 173.60-174.285***

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Hogs Summary

Daily Direct Hogs Plant Delivered

Carcass Base Price

Range: 114.50-126.00

Weighted Average: 115.61

Change from Prior Day: -8.08

Head Count: 3,203

Daily Hog Slaughter

428,000. Down 30,000 from last week and 47,000 from last year.

Technical Snapshot

Lean Hogs

October lean hogs opened lower on concerns of slowing Chinese growth, but managed to claw back losses, finishing the session in positive territory and smack dab in the middle of our pivot pocket. In yesterday’s report we defined our pivot pocket as 100.375-100.825. A breakout and close above or a breakdown and close below could spark a bigger directional move. With prices so close to contract highs, there are fewer defined levels of resistance.

Resistance: 101.65**

Pivot: 100.375-100.825

Support: 98.05-98.25***, 96.775-97.525***, 94.30-95.30***

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