Soybeans
Monday’s Recap
Monday’s Soybean market was lower with the March contract dropping 9’0 to 986’0, a one week low. Overall, 304,289 contracts were traded, with 110,510 done in March. Across all maturities, open interest fell 3,658, or 0.40%, with March adding 11,156 (3.14%) to 366,916.
Technicals
January soybeans tried to hold ground yesterday but gave up ground following a flurry of bearish headwinds from South American production estimates and a disappointing NOPA crush report. Despite the weakness, support was able to hold (so far), that remains intact from 977 1/4-980 3/4. Just below this pocket is the contract low from August, 973 1/2. Below that and the selling could snowball.
Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 1002 1/2-1006 1/2***, 1011 1/2-1013 3/4**, 1018-1024 3/4****
Pivot: 986 1/4-987 1/4
Support: 977 1/4-980 3/4*** 973 1/2**
Fundamental Notes
- Weekly Export Inspections: 1,676,444 MT. Within the range of estimates and just below last week’s 1,736,783.
- NOPA Crush: The U.S. soybean crush declined in November from an all-time high a month earlier and fell short of most trade estimates, according to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data released on Monday. NOPA members, which account for about 95% of U.S.-processed soybeans, crushed 193.185 million bushels of the oilseed last month, below the average estimate of 196.713 million bushels.
Popular Options
Option trading centered around the March 1060 calls with 4,520 changing hands and the Jan 970 puts with volume of 4,879. Option open interest is largest for the March 1100 calls at 18,021, and the March 980 puts at 29,644.
Volatility Update
Soybean implied volatility closed the session moderately higher as SVL increased 0.24 to settle at 16.03, a one week high. The 30-day historical volatility closed the day up by 0.0554% to 14.00%. The SVL Skew ended slightly up, gaining 0.019 to finish at -0.39.
Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 12.16.24)
Below is a look at historical price averages for January soybean futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results). As with corn, December has been a historically friendlier month for soybeans. Keep in mind though that we’ve seen a lot of counter seasonal trends for beans throughout the year.
Commitment of Traders Update(Updated on 12.16.24)
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds trimmed their net short position slightly, bringing it to -58,320.
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