Grain Markets Firm in the Early Morning Trade

Weekly Export Inspections

Yesterday’s weekly export inspections report was largely inline with expectations for corn, soybeans, and wheat.

• Corn: 1,188,666 metric tons (46,795,700 Bushels)
• Soybeans: 716,618 metric tons (26,331,196 Bushels)
• Wheat: 374,224 metric tons (13,750,374 Bushels)

Winter Wheat Crop Conditions

• Kansas: 19% Good/Excellent, up 2%
• Colorado: 36% Good/Excellent, down 4%
• Oklahoma: 29% Good/Excellent, down 1%
• Texas: 23% Good/Excellent, up 6%

Black Sea Grain Deal

• Russia laid out conditions on Monday for agreeing to any further extension of the Black Sea grain deal, and President Vladimir Putin said that Moscow could send free grain to African countries if those conditions were not met. -Reuters
• The deal, allowing the safe export of grain from Ukrainian and Russian Black Sea ports, was renewed on Saturday for 60 days - half the intended period - after Moscow said any further extension beyond May 18 would hinge on the removal of some Western sanctions. -Reuters

Ukraine Grain Production

• Ukraine’s 2023 grain harvest is likely to fall to 44.3 million tonnes from 53.1 million in 2022 as less acreage is sown due to the Russian invasion, according to a forecast by the Ukrainian agriculture ministry.
• The crop could include 16.6 million tonnes of wheat, 21.7 million tonnes of corn and 4.8 million tonnes of barley, the ministry said.

Outside Markets

• Equity markets are firm in the early morning trade, crude oil futures are higher, and the US Dollar is making new lows for the recent move. The big-ticket item this week is tomorrow’s Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates, which will be followed by a press conference.

Corn

Seasonal Trend in Play

• None

Technicals (May)

• Corn futures are working back into our resistance pocket, 636 3/4-640 1/4. If the Bulls can chew through this area, we could see the market move towards the cluster of major moving averages, from 658-663. A failure at resistance could set prices back to support from 620-622. Tomorrow is a big day for the outside markets (interest rate decision), which may play a role in commodity price action.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 647 1/4-652 3/4***, 658-663****

Pivot: 636 3/4 -640 1/4

Support: 620-622**, 606 3/4-608 1/2**, 595 1/4-599 1/2****

Soybeans

Seasonal Trend in Play

• July soybeans have trended higher from March 19th-April 30th for 13 of the last 15 years. Want more details? Reach out!

Technicals (May)

• The market made new lows for the move yesterday, trading to the lowest price since December 6th. The 200-day moving average held and remains intact as support, that comes in at 1459. The market is marching north, approaching psychologically significant resistance at $15.00. The more significant pocket we are watching for comes in from 1507-1512.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance: 1522-1530***, 1544 1/4-1550***

Pivot: 1507-1512

Support: 1472-1476****, 1459 3/4**

Wheat

Seasonal Trend

• May Chicago wheat futures have trended lower from February 7th through April 7th for 13 of the last 15 years. The average decline is roughly of 15 cents. Last year was one of the off-trend years, due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. That brought the average gain down.

Technicals (May)

• May Chicago wheat futures were lower for much of the overnight session but are grinding back into positive territory along with many other markets as the US Dollar continues to drift lower. The big resistance level above $7.00 comes in from 730-735.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 730-735***, 746 3/4-758 3/4****

Pivot: 690-700

Support: 660-665*

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