Since last spring, scientists have been predicting that global weather would soon be disrupted in a major way by the emergence of a so-called “Super’ El Nino that will bring extraordinarily warm waters to the Pacific Ocean for the next several months. Over the last several weeks, key meteorological organizations, such as the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), which is part of the United Nations, and the U.S.’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have both publicly acknowledged that a strong El Nino episode is now underway, although both organizations have refrained from referring to it as ‘Super’.
El Nino, and its cold-water counterpart, La Nina, are part of a cyclical climate phenomenon that was first identified by Peruvian fisherman during the 19th Century, who noted the frequent emergence of warm waters off of the west coast of South America late in the year around Christmas time. They dubbed it ‘El Nino’ after the Christ Child (it means the boy in Spanish). The combined pattern of warm, neutral, and cold water dominating that region of the Pacific is known as the El Nino Seasonal Oscillation, or ENSO, and generally has a cycle of two to seven years.
Over the last several decades dating back to 1950, we have seen 7 previous ‘Super’ El Nino episodes, which are defined as those which raise the average sea temperature in the central and eastern equatorial area of the Pacific Ocean by 2 degrees (Celsius) or more as compared to normal water temperatures in that region. A consensus of models assembled by Yale Climate Connections suggest this year’s El Nino could impel an increase in water temperature in that region of the Pacific Ocean by as much as 3.6 degrees Celsius, which would make this upcoming El Nino episode the strongest ever in recorded history.
Prior to this year’s Super El Nino, which is just getting underway, the most recent one was in 2015-16. In fact, that episode was one of the strongest climate events ever recorded, leading to severe droughts across Central America and parts of Africa, weakened monsoon rains in Asia, and 16 tropical cyclones across the western Pacific basin. The drought conditions created by the last ‘Super El Nino’ had devastating effects on crop production in Central America and several countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. It reduced the crop harvest by an estimated 70 percent in Haiti, and the below-average monsoon rains launched an 18-month long drought in the Philippines, affecting 400,000 farmers. Ethiopia experienced its worst drought in decades, affecting both the spring and summer growing seasons. Both crop farmers and pastoralists were devastated, leading to an estimated 10 million additional Ethiopians facing severe food insecurity. Globally, the number of food insecure people rose by an estimated 60 million as a result of the agricultural losses due to the 2015/16 El Nino, according to data compiled by the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Food Program (WFP). The South Pacific cyclone season of 2015-16, stronger than normal in part due to the Super El Nino episode, led to 50 deaths and $1.4 billion in damages.
Not every region of the world was adversely affected by the previous Super El Nino. Unlike the Pacific cyclone season, the 2015-16 El Nino is believed to have suppressed storm formation in the Atlantic Ocean and led to a less active than usual hurricane season in the Western Hemisphere. Major regions of the United States, including the Southern U.S. and California, received higher than average rainfall, although that increase was a benefit for California, which had suffered through a multi-year drought between 2012 and 2016. The El Nino-induced dry conditions that hit parts of the Midwest and Mountain West didn’t impact until the fall, when most of the spring-planted crops had already matured and were about to be harvested.
Most international and national meteorological organizations have determined that the 2026/27 Super El Nino started its cycle back in early June of 2026, or about two months ago, and its effects are projected to persist through to the spring of 2027, with peak events occurring between December and next February. In many regions, scientists believe that the El Nino effects are likely to create a dangerous feedback loop with respect to the types of weather phenomenon we’ve already identified as being strengthened by climate change, such as wildfires and tropical storms.
If this Super El Nino follows previous patterns, we should expect wetter than normal conditions in the southern U.S. and California, and warmer and drier conditions across the northern half of the country. This would exacerbate the drought conditions that already exist in that part of the country, especially in Mountain West states like Colorado, Montana, and Idaho, many parts of which are also facing extreme or exceptional drought conditions according to the U.S. Drought Monitor Map. This combination might put the 2026/27 winter wheat crop (planted in the fall and harvested in the spring) and normal spring planting (2027/28 crop year) schedules at risk in that region.
Above average temperatures are also expected across Africa, southern Europe, the Arabian Peninsula, the Indian subcontinent, eastern Asia, Central America, the Caribbean, Southern Africa, much of South America and New Zealand. This will likely lead to severe droughts and increased incidence of wildfires in many of these regions, putting agricultural production at risk in addition to damage wreaked on other sectors of the economy. Reduced crop and livestock production is likely to create greater food insecurity in most of the developing countries affected, putting increased strain on humanitarian assistance resources around the world.
