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Live Cattle (October)
October live cattle continued to drift lower during Friday’s session, erasing gains and filling the gap from Monday’s breakout move. Last week’s cash cattle trade in the south had the bulk near 123, this was one higher from the previous week. In the north, sales ranged from 125-128, softer than the previous week. Last week’s trade is looking like a false breakout as the market settle back into the range that it had been stuck in for the last few months, 126-129(ish)............Click this link to read the FULL report and receive our daily commentary
Resistance: 132.65-132.85**
Pivot: 129.875-130.475
Support: 127.80-128.35***, 125.825-125.95**
Feeder Cattle (September)
September feeder cattle were softer during Friday’s session as the market gave back the big gains from the previous Friday and last Monday’s trade. Trendline support comes in near 163.00, a break and close below here could spark another wave of selling and take us closer towards the low end of the range, 160.05-160.825............Click this link to read the FULL report and receive our daily commentary
Resistance: 165.225-165.525***, 169.525**
Support: 164.025-164.30***, 160.05-160.825***
Lean Hogs (October)
October lean hogs broke out above the top end of the recent range as the bullish seasonal begins. That seasonal is buying December lean hogs on August 28th and holding through September 15th, which has been profitable for 13 of the last 15 years. Previous resistance now becomes support, which comes in from 89.70-89.975. Our next resistance was tested on Friday, which comes in at 90.875. Above that is 91.55-91.725............Click this link to read the FULL report and receive our daily commentary
Resistance: 90.875**, 91.55-91.725***
Pivot: 89.70-89.975
Support: 86.875-87.25**, 83.00-83.50**, 80.575-80.90****, 79.125**
Dairy In the past 2 weeks, October Class III futures have lost more than $1.00 to close Friday @ $16.62. This is following a trend of near-term futures price deterioration seen this summer. From a bearish perspective, is the headwind of too much supply of butter and cheese, backed up ports, and the emergence of the delta variant too strong? If that’s the case maybe adding hedges in Q4 would be prudent. From the bullish view, this may be a nice opportunity to enter a bull future spread. The Oct-Dec spread closed at the price of -0.63, this represents a 10-year low. A buyer of this spread will be somewhat bullish and expect Q4 prices to strengthen sooner than later, resulting in a bounce-back of October futures. The same line of thinking will work for the Nov-Jan spread as well, the spread is trading -0.17, also a 10-year low, and this will give a little more time for the bearish news to work through the market. The Nov-Jan spread would fit nicely for a producer that is sufficiently protected in Q4, but not in Q1.
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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
