Markets Sharply Lower On Beneficial Extended Weather Forecast

Russian Wheat Production Higher

• Sovecon raised its forecast for Russia's 2021 wheat crop by 1.5 million tonnes to 82.4 million tonnes. 
• IKAR, increased its projection for this year's wheat crop by 2 million tonnes to 82 million.
• The forecasts were raised after rains in May improved the condition of winter wheat in Russia's largest wheat producing and exporting southern region.
• The estimate was also raised due to the quick planting pace and improved conditions for spring wheat in Russia's central and Volga regions.
• Dry weather, however, worsened the condition of spring wheat in the Urals and Siberia.
• USDA increased its production forecast for Russia to 86 million tonnes versus 85 million previously, and compared to 85.9 million produced last year.
• Sovecon also raised its estimate for the corn crop by 1.2 million tonnes to 15.6 million tonnes due to a larger planted area and good weather. 

FBN’s Take On What It Means For The Farmer: USDA forecasts for Russia’s wheat crop may be aggressive.  Production risks are still seen, with above normal rain continuing in the winter grain areas and hot and dry weather forecast in the spring wheat areas. However, FBN does see US winter wheat as overvalued and if Russian production increases are realized, this would provide more weight on the market. 

US Acreage Expectations 

• Participate in FBN’s Planted Area Poll! To complete the acreage poll, click here.
• IHS Markit (Informa) slightly decreased its projection for 2021 US corn planted area to 96.5 million acres from 96.8 million last month. 
• The estimate remains significantly above the USDA March intentions figure of 91.1 million acres.
• If their acreage forecast is realized along with trend yields of 179.5 bushels per acre, it could add a billion bushels of production.
• IHS Markit increased the bean area outlook to 89.1 million acres from the previous projection of 88.5 million.
• The March Prospective Plantings report from the USDA saw expectations for 87.6 million acres. 

FBN’s Take On What It Means For The Farmer: Fewer prevent plant acres will likely lead to higher area for both corn and beans compared to initial intentions. We encourage all members to participate in FBN’s Planted Area Poll. This will give FBN key insights ahead of USDA’s report on June 30, which likely will be market moving.  In essence, the more participation we have the better our results will be and the better positioned you can be ahead of June 30.

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