There is a bullish seasonal trend for December live cattle that starts on March 16th and lasts through April 8th. December live cattle futures have traded higher for 12 of the last 15 years during this time frame. Below is a chart of average December live cattle futures prices for the last 5, 15, and 30 years. We’ve highlighted the seasonal trend in the yellow box. Below the chart is a table of the performance over the last 15 years. It’s important to be aware of other variables that may impact price during a seasonal trend. Seasonal trends can be a great addition to a trader’s “toolbox” and should not be taken as a standalone trade recommendation.
We like to look at the historical data and assign a significance level to the seasonal trend. This particular seasonal trend has a low significance rating in our book, but there are other variables to take into account. For an example, we will also look at market conditions such as overbought/oversold. If a market is oversold and approaching a “bullish” time of year (going off historical trends) we would feel more confident in trying to trade a low, than we would in other market environments.
Learn more about Seasonal Trends!
A list of approximately 30 historical trading strategies for out-rights and spreads from a variety of the major commodity markets EACH MONTH!
Learn More about Seasonal Trends!
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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
