Speer: The Cattle Producer in 2043
Just after New Year’s, an industry professional challenged me with this question: “What does the cattle producer in 2043 look like?” That’s a tough question! But there are some definitive indicators pointing the way.
LCP: Let’s start with Purdue University’s Large Commercial Producer (LCP) survey – an ongoing project conducted by the Center for Food an Ag Business for nearly 30 years. Several highlights from the most recent ’21 survey are particularly important:
- Growth Expectation: “The cattle segment has significant growth aspirations among livestock producers.”
- Consolidation: “…significant movement to larger sized farms is a reflection of the continued growth mindset for many producers…”
- Management Strategies: “Cost management and production management are the major drivers for all types of [commercial] producers.” To that end, 67% of respondents ranked cost management as being the 1st or 2nd most important controllable driver that impacts profitability. Note the emphasis on cost AND production management – that is, the price / performance relationship.
A couple of broader themes are also important. Most notably:
- Farmers are becoming more analytical
- Decisions are NOT made in a vacuum
- Solutions may be unique to the farmer
- Technology is changing how they do business
Aimpoint: Now let’s turn our attention to Aimpoint’s Research - Farmer of the Future. Aimpoint describes the results as reflecting “the psychology of the farmers who are most likely to lead the industry in 2040 and both the internal and external factors impacting their business.” They’re categorized in order of most-to-least poised to survive over next twenty years (including paraphrased descriptors):
- Independent Elites:
Successful, smart, financially sound. Innovative, open to change, secure in their knowledge. See significant opportunity in the current environment and believe success is within their control.
- Enterprising Business Builders:
Aggressive, growth-oriented, high-business IQ. Seek advice and collaboration. Confident about business in any market. Least traditional, most adaptable and entrepreneurial.
- Classic Practitioners:
Struggling to grow. Believe success is NOT fully in their control and lack some resources and business acumen to get to next level. More traditional, less innovative.
- Self-Reliant Traditionals:
No longer focused on growth. Financially resilient. Most resistant to change and least innovative.
- Leveraged Lifestylers:
Most at-risk compared to other segments. “Feel” they have done everything right but external factors have hindered their success and finances. Tend to be impulsive.
Outside My Boat: The highlighted phrases above (e.g. growth mindset, unique solutions, innovative, open to change and confident) are key differentiators. They’re indicative of how successful producers think about – and subsequently act upon – future goals and plans. In aggregate, they reveal discipline towards shutting out noise and focusing on the business.
Bob Ernst’s story outlined in, That’s Outside My Boat, aptly illustrates that principle. The book begins with Ernst, U.S. rowing coach, describing the ’87 world rowing championships in Copenhagen. The race had the U.S. team in the outermost and windiest lane; and that day was particularly bad with the Dutch team stopping earlier in the day mid-race because of the conditions.
But the U.S. team had a great day! They didn’t care about the conditions. Instead, they tasked themselves with only what they could control – what happens inside the boat. Ernst notes, “the girls said they never gave the wind and the conditions a thought. All they were thinking about was Betsy, the coxswain, saying, ‘Okay, we’re at a thousand meters and we’ve got three seats on the cows’ (a reference to the Soviets).”
What does the cattle producer of 2043 look like? Whatever the answer, it’s clear success will come to those less focused on uncontrollable variables outside – and increasingly driven by what’s occurring inside - the boat.
Right focus equals right results.
Nevil Speer is an independent consultant based in Bowling Green, KY. The views and opinions expressed herein do not reflect, nor are associated with in any manner, any client or business relationship. He can be reached at nevil.speer@turkeytrack.biz.
