Time To Buy The Dip In Grains?
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Corn (December)
Fundamentals: Corn futures continued their decline yesterday, trading roughly 40 cents off the highs from the start of the week. The selling accelerated when we heard that the NASS (National Agricultural Statistics Service) announced a possible adjustment to the U.S. corn and soybean acreage numbers in this month’s report. They typically do this in October, the fact that the announced the possibility in September all but says they are going to do it in September. It can be reasonably assumed that the numbers would be revised higher. This is bearish news, but from a trader’s perspective, sometimes we look for bearish headlines to confirm the recent decline and that could help mark a near term low (ie: buy the rumor, sell the news). This morning’s weekly export sales report showed Net sales reductions of 300,800 MT for 2020/2021--a marketing-year low--were greater than the previous week, but down noticeably from the prior 4-week average. For 2021/2022, net sales of 1,159,500 MT were reported.
Techncials: The market worked lower in the overnight session, taking out yesterday’s lows but grinding back near unchanged in the early morning hours. Our bias has shifted from Bearish/Neutral to Neutral/Bearish. We have been actively working with clients this morning to reduce short exposure for those who have been short. For those who want to be long, we have been initiating long positions via futures/options. Previous support will now act as resistance, that comes in near 533..........
Bias:
Previous Session Bias:
Resistance:
Pivot:
Support: Click here to read the FULL report and receive our market bias and technical levels!
Soybeans (November)
Fundamentals: Soybean futures continued their decline yesterday, trading as much as 66+ cents off the highs from the beginning of the week. The selling accelerated when we heard that the NASS (National Agricultural Statistics Service) announced a possible adjustment to the U.S. corn and soybean acreage numbers in this month’s report. They typically do this in October, the fact that the announced the possibility in September all but says they are going to do it in September. It can be reasonably assumed that the numbers would be revised higher. This is bearish news, but from a trader’s perspective, sometimes we look for bearish headlines to confirm the recent decline and that could help mark a near term low (ie: buy the rumor, sell the news). This morning’s weekly export sales report showed net sales of 68,200 MT for 2020/2021 were down 9 percent from the previous week, but up 9 percent from the prior 4-week average. For 2021/2022, net sales of 2,132,500 MT were reported. This is a friendly number and may help support price.
Technicals: The overnight market was able to defend yesterday’s low and firmed up this morning after the release of the weekly export sales data. We’ve had a bearish tilt in our bias for a while now but have been working with clients this morning to reduce short exposure for those who have been short. For those who want to be long, we have been initiating long positions via futures/options. If the Bulls can chew through 1286 ¼-1292, we could see that spark additional short covering towards the psychologically significant 1300 handle....................
Bias: Previous Session Bias:
Resistance:
Pivot:
Support: Click here to read the FULL report and receive our market bias and technical levels!
Wheat (December)
Fundamentals: This morning’s weekly export sales report showed net sales of 295,300 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 15 percent from the prior 4-week average.
Technicals: We moved our bias to outright Neutral this morning as we see near-term opportunity for traders on both sides of the market. The market traded lower yesterday and again in the overnight session but found some strength as we went into the early morning intermission on decent export data. Support from 694 ¾-700 remains intact. If you’re bullish, that is your tap out point. The bears have a near term technical advantage so long as they can defend 744 ¾-750..........
Bias:
Previous Session Bias:
Resistance:
Pivot:
Support: Click here to read the FULL report and receive our market bias and technical levels!
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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
