The current bird flu outbreak in the United States, featuring primarily the H5N1 strain, was first detected in wild bird flocks in January 2022, and in commercial poultry operations and backyard flocks a month later. As of February 2025, USDA estimates that around 156 million birds have been lost due to the outbreak, in all 50 U.S. states as well as Puerto Rico.
There are several different types of commercial poultry operations in this country–the most common are broiler operations, which raises birds exclusively for chicken products sold either in retail outlets or as dishes in restaurants or fast food places–egg layer operations, in which hens lay eggs for human consumption, and also operations which specialize in raising turkeys for human consumption. Nationally, there were more than 240,000 farms raising egg-laying hens in 2022, nearly 43,000 farms raising broiler birds, about 42,000 operations raising roosters, nearly 34,000 farms raising pullets to replace worn-out egg-laying hens, and 23,400 farms raising turkeys for market, all as reported in the Census of Agriculture for that year. There are also about 85,000 farms raising a variety of bird species such as ostriches, guinea hens, and quails, and pheasants. Combined, these commercial bird farms had a total inventory of nearly 2.4 billion birds in that year. In addition, USDA estimates there are about 138,000 U.S. households with backyard flocks of birds (mostly egg-laying hens), averaging about 49 birds per operation.
Thus far, this strain of bird flu has been spread primarily due to contact with infected birds, their excrement, saliva, or feathers. Wild bird flocks are probably the main reservoir of the virus, although mortality from the disease varies considerably between wild species.
This outbreak drew greater public attention in March 2024, when the U.S. Center for Disease Control (CDC) announced the discovery of a multi-state outbreak of bird flu among dairy cattle herds. That first announcement identified cases in a handful of herds across several states. Over the last year, the disease has been detected in 977 dairy herds across 17 states, with additional cases found in at least 70 other types of mammals over the same period, including domestic cats, seals, polar bears, and minks.
There have been 70 confirmed human cases of H5N1 flu in the United States since the 2022 outbreak was identified in this country, and one death among those cases, occurring earlier this year in Louisiana. So far, nearly all the cases were transmitted through contact with infected birds or their droppings, although a few cases in California the virus is believed to have been transmitted through consumption of raw milk from infected dairy cows. The milk pasteurization process evidently kills the virus quite effectively. No human cases are believed to have occurred as a result of human to human transmission.
Absent the possibility of mutation of the virus into being infectious through human contact, which would be a serious health concern, the main impact has been the significant loss of egg-laying hens in the United States due to this outbreak, causing a shortage of table eggs for consumption and a steep increase in egg prices in recent months. Since the beginning of the outbreak in January 2022, U.S. average egg prices across a 12-city sample have increased from just under $2 per dozen to around $8 per dozen by the end of February 2025, according to USDA data. Interestingly enough, grocery stores in the Washington DC area are selling commodity eggs (one dozen large white eggs) for prices in that range, but niche egg offerings such as cage-free or branded eggs (like Eggland’s Best) are less expensive, at least during my most recent visits to grocery stores.
It is important to note that the large death toll among commercial poultry flocks, especially egg-laying hens, is not the result of direct infection of the flu virus, but the result of the U.S. policy for individual farms to depopulate their entire flocks if a single case of bird flu is detected within a ten-mile radius, in order to protect against wider infection. USDA’s Animal and Health Plant Inspection Service (APHIS) provides compensation to those operations required to cull birds, although a bill was introduced last month in the U.S. Senate by Senators Chris Coons (D, DE) and Roger Wicker (R, MS) to expand the compensation scheme to cover birds culled from flocks that never tested positive for this virus. This quarantine protocol is the standard approach for trying to limit the spread of zoonotic disease among commercial livestock and poultry operations, approved by the international body World Organization for Animal Health, formerly OIE (Office Internationale des Epizooties).
Newly confirmed Secretary of Agriculture, Brooke Rollins, rolled out a new plan late in February to help poultry producers turn the corner on the avian flu outbreak and start bringing egg prices down. The plan involves spending up to $1 billion on the following steps:
• Invest in improved biosecurity measures for U.S. poultry producers
• Increase financial assistance to affected producers
• Remove Unnecessary Regulatory Burdens on the Chicken and Egg Industry to Further Innovation and Reduce Consumer Prices
• Explore Pathways toward Vaccines, Therapeutics, and Other Strategies for Protecting Egg Laying Chickens to Reduce Instances of Depopulation, and
• Consider Temporary Import-Export Options to Reduce Costs on Consumers and Evaluate International Best Practices.
However, despite the urgency that Secretary Rollins attaches to this matter, a number of USDA scientists and other staff involved in addressing the bird flu outbreak had their jobs terminated in February as part of the DOGE effort to reduce the overall federal workforce. Efforts are now underway to rehire those USDA employees.
Ms. Rollins was recently interviewed on Fox News about the federal response to the bird flu outbreak, and suggested that American households might consider establishing their own backyard flocks in order to avoid having to buy eggs in the local grocery store. Given that there are currently fewer than a quarter million such operations among the more than 82 million single family homes in the United States, it seems unrealistic that families would want to invest their time and resources in such an effort in sufficient numbers that would make a dent in this problem.
