President Donald Trump says he is working on a “massive deal” to purchase potash from Belarus. In a Truth Social post on Monday, Trump calls the discussions “very good news for our farmers and ranchers” and says the potash from Belarus would be cheaper than purchasing from Canada.
Following Trump’s comment, the leader of Belarus said in a statement, the country does not have the volume to supply the United States. Trump later clarified on Tuesday that the U.S. would continue to buy potash from Canada. “We’ll continue to go with Canada, but Belarus would like to sell it for a much lower price,” Reuters reports the President says.
According to a report from the Fertilizer Institute released in 2025, the U.S. imports about 86% of its potash needs.
The price of fertilizer is part of a bigger-picture problem. A Farm Journal survey commissioned by the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) and American Soybean Association (ASA) released Tuesday shows 46% of farmers are more concerned about the financial outlook of their farms than a year ago. Out of the 1,200 farmers surveyed, 90% say they are more or equally concerned about their farm financials than a year ago.
“That really jumps out at me because a year ago, there was already calls of a farm-crisis-type of situation, and we’re saying that 90% are equally or even more concerned about their own farm financials today,” says NCGA Chief Economist Krista Swanson. “That is a really staggering statistic to me.”
High Prices Fail to Offset Input Costs
Although corn and soybean prices have rallied, NCGA’s report indicates it isn’t enough to offset high production costs. Of the corn-farmer respondents:
- 10% expect to be clearly profitable
- 41% expect to be marginally profitable
- 28% expect a to break even
- 14% anticipate a loss
- 7% are unsure
Soybean farmers were more optimistic. Of the respondents:
- 13% plan to be clearly profitable
- 43% expect to be marginally profitable
- 24% predict they will break even
- 13% of the growers anticipate a loss
- 7% are unsure
The survey was conducted Sept. 1-8, during a time of higher prices when compared to earlier in the year.
“Obviously, that probably helped fuel some optimism, but even knowing that, the level of concern was still there,” Swanson says.
The Belarus Potash Reality Check
Several factors, including fertilizer costs, are playing into farmers’ financial concerns. Josh Linville, StoneX Fertilizer vice president, says not a single ton of potash from Belarus has made its way to the U.S. since late 2021 or 2022. In 2010, the landlocked country sold the most potash it’s ever sold to the U.S., about 750,000 tons.
“History would tell you they’re not going to be a major supplier,” Linville says. “They’re not exactly surrounded by friendly countries right now.”
Belarus typically exports fertilizer through Lithuania and deep seaports, he explains. However, in 2022, Russia moved troops into Belarus and shut down the standard travel passage. With NATO and EU member states to the west and the northwest and Ukraine to the south, the landlocked country’s only logistical route is to move fertilizer east into Russia.
“It’s more expensive and, worse yet, we don’t think they have the efficiencies and the ability to move those normal flows through Russia into their ports out to the rest of the world,” Linville says, who believes President Trump is trying to use the move as a negotiating tactic against Canada.
“As soon as I heard the announcement, I kind of scratched my head like, I don’t quite understand where he’s coming from here,” Linville says. “[Belarus has] never been a major supplier of ours. I don’t foresee them coming back to being a major supplier unless he got Lithuania to agree to reopen that border, which I have not heard.”
Middle East Chokepoints Shake Nitrogen and Phosphate
NCGA reports when fertilizer prices rose because of the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, 35% of corn and soybean farmers had already made their production decisions. The NCGA and ASA study ranks problems on a five-point scale, with 5 being “very concerned”. On average, farmers ranked fertilizer well above four. Fuel and energy ranked at the top concern.
“I think there are some real things that can be done here,” Swanson says. “None of them are what I would view as like an overnight solution. We didn’t get into this situation overnight, and so it’s going to take some time to get out of it.”
Swanson says increasing domestic production is a step in the right direction, but not an “automatic solution.” NCGA supports the temporary suspension of countervailing duties on Moroccan phosphate. Swanson suggests the move become permanent.
Linville believes the key to lower fertilizer prices is the safe passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. He says the uncertainty is “hammering” on nitrogen markets, and although the fertilizer industry has seen price spikes in the past, he argues the industry has not seen an issue of this magnitude before.
“It doesn’t matter where you farm. That situation half a world away is impacting your price,” he says. “I’ve been in this industry for nearly 25 years now …We’ve never seen anything like this.”
Moving forward, Linville is most worried about phosphate. When comparing phosphate to the price of corn today, he says it is the second-to-third-highest ratio value he’s seen.
The $1,000-a-Ton Sulfur Shock
A sulfur shortage is another problem farmers are facing. Ben Pratt, vice president of public affairs for Mosaic Company, tells Farm Journal’s Tyne Morgan sulfur prices have blown past anything he’s seen in his career.
“I’ve been at Mosaic 15 years, and in all that time, sulfur has typically traded somewhere between $100 and $300 a ton,” Pratt says. “At this moment, because of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and other conflicts rattling the world, sulfur prices are well north of $1,000 a ton. They’ve multiplied fivefold.”
Linville says about 50% of the world’s tradable supply no longer exists because it travels through the Strait of Hormuz. Russia is sitting on its supply, accounting for about 17% of global tradable sulfur. With two-thirds of the world’s supply off the table, Linville is confident phosphate will be impacted.
“When people sit there and say, well, you know, the high price is going to kill demand. That’s going to bring this price crashing back down. We’ve been telling people all summer and into the fall. Well, no, it’s not,” he says.
If demand destruction happens and prices fall, Linville believes manufacturers will shut down more production. “They’re not going to produce those tons at a loss. They’re just not going to,” he says.
Linville believes the biggest impact for farmers going into 2027 will be uncertainty. He’s afraid the back and forth overseas and the hope for lower prices will lock up decision making: “That’s my bigger fear is we just wait and wait and wait until the last minute and then also we get into a logistical logjam, and people say, I know you want it, but I don’t have it,” he says.
