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While temperatures were nearing normal last week on our farm in southeast Nebraska, a cold front has pushed in and put a stop to any planting progress.

On Thursday, the USDA decreased the estimated national corn yield more than the trade was expecting. In the last 15 years, only 4 had estimated final yields higher in the January report compared to August’s.

This week’s biggest story was the inverse spread between the May and July contracts. Generally, inverses indicate the market is short on supply.

Which USDA Reports Should Farmers Give Their Attention To?

The market is trying to determine what the upcoming harvest yields will be. Early reports where harvest has started south of I-80 are positive.

This week the corn and bean markets were dominated by upcoming weather uncertainty and Friday’s Supreme Court ruling against the ethanol industry and potentially the entire renewable fuels industry.

Corn and beans continue trading within tight ranges. Yield estimates seem less certain than usual for this time of year. Therefore, a sideways market may be likely until the September USDA report is released.

Over the last 5 trading sessions corn dropped 90 cents, while beans were nearly unchanged.

This week the USDA decreased the 2020 corn carryout, which lowered the stock to use ratio (i.e., the total usage compared to total production) to 2012 marketing year levels.

The USDA report found an additional 246 million bushels to add to the production side of the balance sheets.