Market Analysis
Randy Martinson says confirmation of 29 million bushels of soybeans sold to China is already priced into the market after the big rally to 17-month highs in soybeans. So, the market is seeing a traditional “buy to rumor sell the fact” reaction.
Soybean futures closed nearly $.33 higher on the January contract. Craig Turner with StoneX said there was unconfirmed market talk of multiple cargoes of soybeans being sold to China through the Pacific Northwest.
Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the fear of Brazilian beef tariffs being lowered was part of the selloff in the cattle futures last week. However, Brazil tariffs are still at 66.4% so he says it was already priced into the market.
Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist with StoneX says USDA only lowered national corn yield .7 bushels per acre to 186 which was a disappointment for the bulls.
Price action summary and outlook for the next 5, 30 and 90 day segments.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the funds continue to liquidate their long positions on the fear of the Mexican border reopening but lower fed cash is also a negative.
Don Roose with U.S. Commodities says corn and soybeans saw chart breakout with fund buying heading into the USDA report on expectations of lower yield but also watching for China buys in the daily export sales.
The grain markets fought off early weakness on Wednesday to close near the highs of the day and stage a strong technical close according to Bryan Doherty, Total Farm Marketing.
DuWayne Bosse with Bolt Marketing says grains are fading the reopening of the government on positioning ahead of USDA’s reports on Friday and the lack of China soybean purchases.
Chuck Shelby with Risk Management Commodities, says grains were mixed positioning ahead of the USDA reports with corn getting some support from lower yields in the average trade estimates.
Vince Boddicker with Farmers Trading Company says soybeans are mostly lower seeing some Turnaround Tuesday profit taking but the grains are also hearing up for the USDA reports Friday.
Sam Hudson with Corn Belt Marketing says part of the rally in the grains was tied to talk of the government possibly reopening this week. That provided a risk on environment for the bulls who have been flying blind with the lack of market data from USDA.
Live and feeder cattle futures are extending gains after a higher close on Friday. Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says he is encouraged a low may be forming in both markets.
Soybeans bounced on Friday and were up Matt Bennett with AgMarket.Net says to go back and retest this week’s highs or move to new highs soybeans will need to see proof of China purchases.
Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says the cattle market is seeing a short covering or technical bounce after an ugly down week. So is the fund liquidation done yet or is this a dead cat bounce?
Ted Seifried says the ag markets saw risk off selling across the commodity board and profit taking in the grains after the recent rally. But with the volatility in the soybean market is this topping action?
Darin Newsom, senior market analyst with Barchart, Inc., says commodity wide selling is hitting the grain and livestock futures early Thursday and some of it is tied to uncertainty regarding the future of tariffs.
January soybeans rallied $.13 on Wednesday as China dropped it 24% retaliatory tariffs imposed on U.S. ag goods March 4 for one year.
Mark Knight with Farmer’s Keeper Financial says the market is digesting clarification from China on tariffs. Beijing says it will lower the 24% retaliatory tariffs but the cut still leaves a 13% tariff on U.S. soybeans imported into China.
Randy Martinson with Martinson Ag says most of the grain and oilseed complex saw general profit taking Tuesday after hitting overbought territory.
Arlan Suderman, with StoneX, Inc., says soybeans are rallying on the White House interpretation of the deal which assumes China will buy 12 MMT in the next couple of months on top of the nearly 6 MMT it purchased earlier in 2025. However, he says China has not confirmed that.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says while the cattle futures are distancing themselves from last week’s lows he isn’t sure if all of the bearish news is factored into the market yet. Meanwhile, soybeans make new highs as the White House clarifies China will buy 12 MMT in the last two months of 2025.
Shawn Hackett with Hackett Financial Advisors says with China potentially buying 441 million bushels of U.S. soybeans in the next two months prices need to move a lot higher.
Price action and outlook for soybeans.
After an ugly pullback in the cattle market futures are trying to recover according to Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek as cash strength is returning in the feeder cattle market.
Mark Schultz with Northstar Commodity says in response to the China deal the soybean market pushed into new highs for the move with January finally closing above the $11 mark.
Alan Bruger says USDA was assuming some sales to China in the September WASDE but he thinks the agency will need to make some revisions in their 300 million bushel ending stocks with this deal.
Allison Thompson says soybeans paused on Wednesday with January down 3/4 cent as the market faded news of China purchases as it was already priced into the market.
Lane Akre, economist with Pro Farmer, says soybeans have priced in the optimism about a China trade deal and had muted reaction to news of the first China soybean purchases of the 2025-26 marketing year.
Brian Grete with Commstock Investments thinks the China deal is nearly priced into the soybean market and so it will need confirmation of what “significant purchases” means before moving higher.