The possibility of a hot summer has been advertised for months. As meteorologists watched the transition from El Niño to La Niña, the thought it would be a hot summer, but also dry in the southern tier of the U.S., dominated conversations.
Now that July is here, and the market is focused on the forecast, it’s been an extremely wet start for the heart of the Midwest, with flooding issues along both the Missouri and Mississippi rivers. In fact, 18 gauges along the Upper Mississippi River are at major flood stage, and the Missouri River continues to swell with more heavy rainfall this week.
With eyes on the forecast for July, one ag meteorologist says it looks fairly favorable for much of the Midwest.
“I think we’ll make it through without really critical heat, that’s the way it looks to me, with a lot of heat staying west, south and east of the heart of the Corn Belt,” says Brad Rippey, USDA meteorologist. “One wild card will be the Atlantic Tropic basin — incredibly active already so early this season. That could infuse some moisture into the southern and eastern United States, possibly even the Midwest, as we move forward. As we know from past years, even dry year soybeans can benefit from late rain. So that’s something we’ll be keeping an eye on.”
Rain Chances in July
National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) recently released its 30-day precipitation and temperature outlook. NOAA is forecasting below normal precipitation in the Pacific Northwest and down really through the central and southern Plains, above normal in the upper Corn Belt and along the eastern seaboard.
Rippey says he agrees with NOAA’s 30-day outlook, especially considering the ridge parked across the country that will create more chances for rain.
“We’ve got this ridge that’s pretty well established. It’s going to move from day to day, but that is going to allow some Gulf and Atlantic moisture to work its way into these cold fronts. There’s also going to be a component where the ridge is strong enough that it doesn’t allow the cold fronts and moisture to reach into other areas. And so we are going to be seeing that drying trend across parts of the northern tier, Pacific Northwest, and on into the parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, little bit drier, but then there’s still should be plenty of moisture.”
Rippey says the active weather pattern will continue throughout early July.
“From the standpoint of the Upper Midwest, maybe a little bit of bad news, but for just about everybody else, there could be some good news in this July forecast with some scattered to widespread showers,” he says.
According to USDA’s weekly crop progress report, 11% of the nation’s corn crop is already silking, 5 points ahead of average. The crops need moisture but also not too high of heat. But Eric Snodgrass, science fellow and principal atmospheric scientist for Nutrien Ag, says some areas need a break from the wet weather right now, but they could also use some heat units.
“Honestly, if we can get a little bit of drier weather into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest after this, no one’s going to complain. And on top of that, we need some heat in that area, as well. So, some of the crops are behind in the North,” Snodgrass says.
Snodgrass points out the area he’s worried about the most is the southern Plains.
“If you take a look at that particular map, you notice I’ve got this dry bullseye somewhere around, Texas to Kansas, maybe back over toward Arkansas and parts of Missouri, and given the fact we’ve got such warm ocean temperatures in the North Pacific and in the North Atlantic, historically, that tends to anchor a ridge that sits right in that particular part of the country. So, it’s always a situation every summer of who’s stealing rain from someone else, right? When it comes to the way the pattern sets up, what I just worry is what if it gets stagnant at some point late July or to August? But overall, I think the CPC’s got a pretty good handle on what we think we might see for July.”
The July Heat
What about the heat? Much of the U.S. is expected to see above normal temperatures throughout July, according to NOAA’s 30-day outlook. However, Rippey thinks the core of the Corn Belt won’t bake like the map leads you to believe.
“You notice the little donut hole that is really focused across some major production areas of the Midwest. And that is, I think, the key to this July temperature outlook,” Rippey says. “If you picture the ridge of high pressure that’s been dominating this early summer, think of it as the top of a trampoline. Somebody jumping on that trampoline just kind of bouncing away. That would be the cold fronts trying to knock away the top of this ridge. The Climate Prediction Center thinks that it will be enough, bouncing on this ridge to keep temperatures down a little bit across the Upper Midwest, maybe extending on into other parts of the Corn Belt. That would be good news.”
Rippey says with 11% of the corn crop silking at the end of June, the early July forecast is a critical time for those crops.
“High probabilities above normal temperatures as you move into the western U.S. That is probably going to be true for the Deep South and parts of the East as well,” Rippey says. “So the real question becomes, how much can we keep this ridge knocked down during the critical month of July.”
Last summer was dry for much of the Midwest but also hot. However, the wildfire smoke provided a bit of a blanket to protect crops from the heat. Some agronomists and meteorologists argue last year’s weather proved the crops are more resilient to drought than they are heat.
This year, the West is already baking in consecutive days of triple-digit heat. Dallas-Fort Worth set a record this week for the highest minimum temperature with a reading of 83°F. That beat the previous record from 1998.
Snodgrass says those elevated nighttime temps are something to watch.
“That’s been a concern all season. We thought that this would be a year that was a hot summer, but a lot of that heat coming in overnight lows that were so very warm. If you can remember, when you keep the overnight lows so warm, you also pump out a bunch of moisture into this,” Snodgrass says.
He says the concern with the forecast is the lack of heat forecast for the Upper Midwest, including northern Iowa, Minnesota and South Dakota.
“We had farmers in those areas who had to replant in late May, early June,” Snodgrass says. “The issue there is that if you plant like 105-day corn in late May, your first frost date runs into before you’ll be black layer. And so, there’s some concern in that area. We need some heat, but just keep us under 92°F, right? And that’s going to be the trick as this goes forward.”
