Ahead of the slew of reports to be released by USDA tomorrow, Arlan Suderman chief economist at INTL FCStone, shared his best guesses on the numbers with Chip Flory on AgriTalk.
The average trade guess is expecting 14.532 billion bushels on the corn crop, that’s an average yield of 177.9 bu. per acre and down one bushel from the estimate we got November at 178.9 bu. per acre, according to a survey by Bloomberg. Suderman’s estimate is 178.3 bu. per acre.
The average trade guess on soybean yield is 51.8 bu. per acre. Suderman’s estimate is 51.7 bu. per acre.
“Carryover on corn is still a little bit higher than USDA because I think USDA is overstating feed use at least at this point,” Suderman told Flory. “If we continue to stay cold will make up some of that feed use. And on exports I'm a little bit lower as well. So, I'm at 1.858 on ending stocks right now.”
The average straight guess is 1.708 billion, that would be down 73 million bushels from USDA in December at 1.781 billion bu.
“As I look at my global balance sheet in assuming production numbers, I see us coming up an increased competition here is we go into the last half the marketing year. That'll slow our exports,” Suderman explained. “Our shipments right now are ahead of the pace they need to be on but sales are not and so you can't sustain that pace and I think sales are a little bit more realistic of what we're going to be seeing down the road.”
In December, USDA’s soybean carryover number was 955 million bushels. The average trade guess going into tomorrow’s report is 926, down 29 million bushels from December. Suderman estimates 920 million bushels.
“I'm still a little bit wary of that because when we look at export shipments to date, we're falling short of the pace we need to be on by about 420 million bushels,” he told Flory. “So, it's generally believed the China has purchased 300 to 320 million right now and they may go as high as 350-360 million that doesn't close that gap, so I'm a little bit wary of that yet.”