Ahead of USDA’s March Planting Intentions Report, Allendale, released the results of its 25th annual nationwide acreage survey.
The survey of farmers in 26 states mirrored the projections from USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum in February.
Farmers to Plant 5 Million Acres Less Corn in 2026
Farmers responding to Allendale’s survey indicate they intend to plant 5.1 million acres less corn in 2026, at 93.7 million acres.
That compares to USDA’s 94 million acre projection.
Rich Nelson, Allendale’s cheif analyst, says farmers planting decisions were based on several factors.
“It certainly was rotation. I probably put it at maybe 40% of the general story. I would probably put another 20% being concerns about financial burdens here with this last crop we just harvested. And I put the remainder on the fertilizer discussion. Now, realistically, if you actually compute out the fertilizer increase on a per acre basis, it’s not that extreme, but certainly from a psychological basis, it is something which is quite a bit of a concern and the unknown regarding what could be available for supplies in a few weeks from now.”
The exception was North Dakota, where after planting 750,000 more acres of corn in 2025 producers are once again looking at more corn in 2026 largely due to some bin busting yields that helped them bushel up amid low prices.
Soybean Acreage to Climb Nearly 4.5 Million Acres
Allendale’s survey also pegged U.S. soybean acres to be up 4.44 million from 2025 at nearly 85.7 million acres. That compares to USDA’s 85 million acre estimate at the Ag Outlook Forum.
Nelson says the biggest increases showed up in the Western Corn Belt.
“So, we saw some areas in the some specific regions of some states in the Western Corn Belt where a region within a state might be making as much as a 15% or maybe 18% movement away from corn into soybeans. Over in the Eastern Corn Belt almost everybody’s doing a relatively slow light and consistent movement.”
Wheat Acres Lose Ground, Especially Spring Wheat
Also losing ground in 2026 is wheat.
With Allendale pegging overall acreage at 44.88 million down 450,000 from last year and compares to 45 million from the Ag Outlook Forum.
Looking at the classes, the biggest decline came in hard red spring wheat, which was down over 312, 000 acres at 9.68 million.
Nelson says farmers have had massive quality issues that have led to price discounts the last few seasons.
“Our numbers as far as North Dakota basically said they’re dropping out of wheat and dropping out of wheat very aggressively and as far as the survey moving into soybeans and believe it or not actually into a little bit of corn as well,” he explains.
However, Nelson cautions that the final plantings could change substantially in the next few weeks as the full impact of the Iran war on fertilizer prices was not known at the time of the survey.
“So our survey, which did cover one of those two weeks of producer concerns regarding fertilizer, did suggest there has been a light movement or further movement out of corn and back into soybeans here.”
Plus, plantings could change with the outcome of a China deal, biofuels policy and weather.
Production Estimates for 2026
Still, Allendale’s acreage estimates would shrink the 2026 corn crop.
Nelson says plugging the numbers into the balance sheet corn production is estimated 15.7 billion bu., which is 62 million bu. below USDA’s February estimate.
2026 soybean production would increase slightly to 4.5 billion bushels, with wheat down just 4 million bu. to 1.9 billion bu.
