Corn and soybeans were higher early Tuesday with wheat seeing pressure. Livestock started mixed then pushed higher.
Corn and Soybeans Try to Bounce on Harvest Delays
Corn and soybeans were slightly higher to start Tuesday after losses of 5 cents on corn and 30 cents on soybeans on Monday.
The harvest delays in key growing areas are supporting the market says DuWayne Bosse with Bolt Marketing.
Corn harvest nationally is at 18%, just 1% behind normal while soybean harvest is in line at 17%. However, many key states in the Western Corn Belt are seeing delays. Iowa soybean harvest is 14% behind normal, Nebraska lags by 12% and both are seeing more rain today.
He says, “Soybean harvest is way behind in Nebraska and Iowa and we’re seeing that in the cash basis, right? We’ve got some bids. well above futures, $1 higher so they’re looking for the soybeans. So I think we’re bouncing on that a little bit.”
The lack of new crop soybeans has also forced a few soybean processing plants in the western Corn Belt to idle.
“Basis is doing the heavy lifting, pulling any old crop soybean bushels from anywhere in a tri-state area in to keep operating. But I have heard if these delays continue this week, they’ll just shut down there because there gets to be a certain point. They’re not going
to pay $2 or $3 over the board. They’ll just shut down for a while, do their maintenance and cleaning.’
Corn Standability a Concern
Corn harvest delays are also a concern with standability and sprouting of the ears in the husks being reported.
“I don’t think you’re changing the yield. you know, anything from that 177, 176 area. So I don’t think it’s a market mover,” he adds.
Plus, the extended forecast is starting to look drier to allow harvest to resume.
China Soybean Hangover Done?
The soybean market was down the hardest on Monday on disappointment regarding the China tariff deal as Beijing lowered the 10% reciprocal duty on other agricultural goods, but not soybeans.
Bosse thinks the trade is concerned that without the lower tariff private crushers in China will not be able to buy U.S. beans, making it difficult to get to the 25 MMT goal. He himself questions whether the Chinese government has enough storage for all of the soybean purchases.
So, he is concerned the market has not fully digested the news. “The reason I say that is the funds are record long soybeans, basically record long the complex if you include the byproducts and I’m just worried moving forward now, there’s going to be this question of will China buy the other half of what’s promised?”
He says that combined with harvest pressure could make some of the funds get out of their long positions.
Corn and Wheat Await China Details, Sales
Traders were also disappointed because even though China dropped the 10% tariffs on corn and wheat, there was no specifics on purchases.
Bosse explains, “The $17 billion in other ag goods that China said they’re going to buy or the White House has said China’s going to buy. I don’t know if China’s ever really agreed to it. So, yeah, they lower the tariff, which is good on corn and wheat, but I don’t think they want to buy either one of them right now. So then it’s kind of like, well, who cares if they lower the tariff?”
He says that’s why corn and wheat saw pressure Monday too.
So now the market will need proof of sales to believe the deal is real.
“Honestly, one or two sales of U.S. corn to China,” he says, “And this thing changes, and my attitude changes. I think they’re smart. I think the prices are a little bit higher right now, and Argentina is cheaper for both corn and soybeans, and I think China will just back off for a little bit to try to get it bought at lower levels later on.”
End of Month, Quarter and Report Positioning
The market is also vulnerable to profit taking end of month and end of quarter with the funds near to record long in corn and soybeans. “They’re always squaring up positions at the end of the month, end of the quarter. How their book of business works is they can’t book a profit until they get out of the position. So there could be positions squaring like that,” he says.
Add harvest pressure on top of that.
“Farmers, the natural seller, I do think this year, you know, we’ve had higher prices than we’ve seen in the last three years. So they’ve probably pre-sold some, but also I think farmers are feeling more pressure to make positive sales too. So, I think they’ve done their
pre-sales i think if they’ve got a bigger crop than they thought a lot of those bushels might go to town to get sold too,” he explains.
That will mean farmer and fund selling will converge.
“With the funds already record long I don’t think we have a buyer to offset there. So I don’t mean to sound so bearish because I’m really bullish 2027 but in the short term here for the next month I feel like like we’ll see pressure on prices.”
Quarterly Stocks Report
The end of the month also coincides with the USDA Quarterly Stocks Report and Small Grains Summary.
Bosse says the September report isn’t a big market mover but he is questioning the soybean stocks because of how tight the old crop soybean inventory has been. While others are calling last year’s corn yield too high.
Wheat Sees Pressure
Wheat futures were lower Tuesday as the market continues to become numb to Black Sea headlines, and both countries are finding ways to move wheat other than through the Black Sea.
Plus dry areas of the southern Plains are getting rain.
He says, “One or two systems come through and this is a good soaking system. Now we’re behind normal planting, but I think this is the moisture they need to go out and plant maybe a little bit more aggressively this year than past couple of years. So I think you could see an increase in acres in winter wheat country too. So that weighs on the market.”
Cattle Recover
Cattle futures were back higher Tuesday building on last week’s higher closes and technical momentum.
Bosse says. “It’s an uptrending market and I like the way it looks on the charts.”
Yet he is concerned that cattle slaughter last week was down 45,000 head from the previous week due to plant disruptions caused by ICE raids.
“That probably backed up slaughter a little bit so maybe that’s why the cash cattle trade was lower but my concern is if slaughter was down this much boxed beef should be sharply higher this week,” he says.
He wants to see a stronger rally in the beef market to reinforce that consumer demand is still strong.
Lean Hogs Try to Bounce
Lean hog futures were trying to recover on Tuesday after two down days and poor response to a constructive Hogs and Pigs Report.
Bosse thinks prices are low enough and funds are record short which should lead to some short covering at some point.
“The problem is when I look at a chart and think about the supply and demand situation in the lean hog market I don’t know why the funds would get out. But I think I hope we’re close to support, but I haven’t seen it yet in the chart. So I’m definitely not calling a bottom yet,” he concludes.
