The 64.5-million-bushel corn sale to Mexico was split 41.3 million bushels for the current marketing year and 24.1 million bushels for 2024-25. It’s the 11th largest daily export sale on record and the third largest sale of corn to Mexico. It was especially encouraging considering the ongoing USMCA trade dispute between the U.S. and Mexico.
As of Sept. 14, Mexico had booked more than 6.1 million metric tons of U.S. corn. That is more than the 4.9 million from last year at this time and 5.4 million from two years ago. The buy signals that despite the ongoing trade tiff over Mexico’s proposed ban of GMO corn for human consumption, end users there still want U.S. corn. They might also be concerned about the outcome of the formal trade complaint.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says: “It was huge. I mean, Mexico coming in to buy over a million metric tons of old crop corn and more than 600,000 metric tons of new crop corn. It shows that even though the press is saying we’re hearing stories that Mexico isn’t interested in our corn the private purchasers and the users in Mexico certainly want our corn, but they’re worried they’re not going to be able to get the supplies they need to be able to make their commitment so they’re aggressively buying corn out of the U.S.”
Mexico might also be worried U.S. corn yields could decline. Plus, the buy might be an indication U.S. corn prices are getting low enough to be competitive globally.
Kent Beadle, Paradigm Futures, says: “I think what it signals is that corn is in a value area. I felt that $4.50 to $4.75 would prove the value and probably is the candidate for where our harvest low is going to be, if we haven’t made it already.”
The U.S.’s main competition has been Brazil with their record Safrina corn crop and lower prices and freight rates. However, U.S. corn exports for this marketing year have been improving. Three weeks into the new marketing year sales are just 6% behind a year ago, but corn export inspections are running above last year.
