Last year’s August WASDE report was a shock to the market—with USDA’s record 188.8 bu. per acre corn yield estimate on top of higher acreage by two million acres. This year, the yield debate heading into the August report centers on NDVI models showing above-trendline yields, while row crop ratings are well below 2025. This leaves many in the trade expecting lower yields. Still, there could be surprises on acreage or demand.
Trade Expects Below-Trendline Yields
Reuters trade estimates show below-trendline corn yield at 182.4 bu. per acre, a 0.6 bu. decline from July. Soybean yield is down 0.1 bu. at 52.9 bu. per acre. It’s based on national corn ratings that as of Aug. 10 were at 61% good to excellent, 11% below last year and soybeans conditions were 6% below the same week in 2025 at 62% good to excellent. Plus, it comes down to the crops in the East making up for the South and West.
“When we’ve looked at the range of scenarios given the dry weather that we’ve seen in the western Corn Belt, we think there is a 1- to 2-bushel delta that could be printed,” says Bree Baatz, grain and oilseed analyst at Terrain.
Many private NDVI-based corn yield models are well above trendline, while StoneX’s farmer and elevator survey-based yield estimate was at 184.8 bu. per acre. But officials caution these are not the final numbers.
“I think the potential for either direction is still there,” says Mike Castle, senior commodities economist at StoneX. “Obviously, a lot of the attention that you get in these years is on the negative aspects. But it’s kind of important to keep in mind there are still areas that look very good.”
Acreage the Wild Card
U.S. soybean production is estimated at 4.47 billion bushels, with corn at 15.93 billion bushels. But the wild card may be the FSA-certified acres that are incorporated into the balance sheets.
Reuters poll pegs harvested acres on corn at 87.358 million up 76,000 from the June 30 Acreage Report, while on soybeans the trade is expecting a 163,000 harvested acre increase to 84.564 million.
The call for more corn and soybeans area is the fact that there were over 8 million acres of soybeans that were not planted when the surveys were completed for USDA’s June report leaving some flex in plantings.
“There’s speculation that corn production and planted area is going to increase,” Baatz says. “And then does that become a wash, and does USDA do what they do in the past where they balance the balance sheet?”
Currently, the average trade guess on new-crop carryout on corn is 1.725 billion bushels, down 65 million from July, with old-crop ending stocks just below 2.0 billion bu. But Baatz thinks USDA needs to lower stocks even further due to the record pace of old-crop corn exports.
“When you look at export pace, we are already surpassing USDA’s July forecast, which was a record at 3.325 billion bushels. If you pace it out, we’re at almost 3.475 billion,” Baatz says.
Demand Could Be Bigger Story
As a result of the strong demand and current weather conditions Baatz believes the August WASDE will be the largest balance sheet of the season for both corn and soybeans.
Castle agrees that moving forward new-crop corn and soybean demand will be a bigger story than the current supply.
“Our new-crop soybean sales right now are at their strongest pace since 2022. And we are crushing significantly more soybeans than we were back then. Our growth in the domestic crush has been extremely rapid. And we’re looking at another round of record crush in the year ahead. I do think USDA is probably even low on their crush targets,” Castle says.
That will keep ending stocks historically tight. Trade guesses put old-crop soybean carryout at 321 million bu. and new-crop at only 304 million bushels, both down slightly from July.
