AgDay Markets Now: John Payne Explains the Surge in Grains and Cattle and If There’s More Upside

John Payne, Advance Trading, says soybeans and soybean meal led the grain rally Thursday on short covering and adding weather premium with heavy rains and flooding in southern Brazil and parts of Argentina.

Grains rally on fund short covering. Cattle post a higher day as well.

John Payne, Advance Trading, says soybeans and soybean meal took the lead adding weather premium with heavy rains and flooding in southern Brazil and parts of Argentina.

So, are we seeing a chart breakout that will keep funds covering short positions to keep the rally going?

He says soybean meal got and closed above the 100-day moving average and that could continue to spark buying interest.

Corn followed soybeans and wheat higher but may also be trading some early concerns about planting delays with the wet forecast for the corn belt.

Payne says he’s not getting too excited about planting delays yet but liked the technical action in corn. “I am looking for July corn to close above $4.60 and that will likely be a spot where funds will be forced to cover more of their short position as well.”

Wheat was also adding weather premium due to the lack of rain in southwest Hard Red Winter areas and parts of Russia.

Payne says cattle recovered Thursday after FSIS reported negative tests for H5N1 in ground beef and with cash news higher in the North. However, he is concerned about longer term demand at these higher beef prices.

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Garrett Toay with AgTraderTalk says after the big rally to start the week the grain markets saw some profit taking and corrective selling.
DuWayne Bosse of Bolt Marketing says the wheat market was trying to extend gains early Thursday but may be getting close to pricing the Black Sea export disruptions in.
Oliver Sloup Blue Line Futures, says wheat prices skyrocketed adding risk premium on concerns about the escalating Black Sea war and the disruptions it is causing in the export market. It could have more upside left.
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