The U.S. winter wheat crop went into dormancy with one of the lowest crop ratings in history and Individual state crop conditions ratings showed further deterioration of the hard red winter wheat crop during December except for Oklahoma and Colorado.
The “good” to “excellent” ratings dropped two points in Kansas to 19%, 22 points in Montana to 22%, fell two points in Nebraska, now at 18% and 11 points in South Dakota, which is at just 16%. Improvements over the last month included a seven-point bump in Oklahoma to 38% good to excellent and 20 points in Colorado, which now stands at 50%. Texas did not release updated crop condition ratings. Yet it has failed to move the wheat market.
Kent Beadle, Paradigm Futures, says, “You know we’re ignoring right now some significant declines in crop condition ratings in some parts of the Hard Red belt. Oklahoma improved but Kansas decline and I think 19-percent good to excellent just doesn’t feel very good for potential yields going forward.”
DuWayne Bosse, Bolt Marketing adds, “The wheat, I think we rallied that off of winterkill scares things like that which I think are justified but probably not justified until spring when this crop comes out of dormancy when we really know the crop conditions.”
The wheat market isn’t trading the lower wheat plantings in Ukraine either and instead is focusing on the record large Russian crop. They’ve been able to supply much of the world’s needs and western governments are allowing Russian wheat to be exported, despite the war, to avoid famine. That has undercut U.S. wheat exports.
