Cattle started mixed Monday but quickly moved higher in both live and feeder cattle futures. Hogs are lower, grains are mostly lower early.
Live Cattle Bounce After Lower Weekly Close
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says live cattle futures closed lower for the week in the face of lower cash and cutouts.
Cash trade in the South was mostly $237, down $3 from last week. The North traded $233 midweek but $231 on Friday and $365 dressed, down $6 from last week’s weighted averages.
He expects cash to be lower again this week as he says producers have lost their leverage and now are holding cattle and feeder longer which will increase weights.
Boxed beef cutout values also continue to slide with Choice values now at $371.43, nearly $40 off the highs.
Only 4 Day Kill Schedule
Kooima says the packers have further cut kills and many majors will only have a four day slaughter schedule this week.
Last week’s slaughter was just 555,000 head, which is down 62,000 from last year.
Feeders Post a Higher Week, Can They Lead Live Cattle Higher?
Feeder cattle are still the bright spot of the cattle market and the futures posted a higher weekly close last week.
Kooima says the feeder cattle cash index continues to climb and is up another $2.57 today at $367.61.
So can cash feeders lead the entire futures complex back higher?
Kooima says they feeders have been the leaders and so he is hopeful they can eventually pull the market back up since supplies have continued to stay tight.
“You have the border closure to Mexican feeders likely being prolonged with the cash of New World Screwworm only 70 miles from the border and that should keep the supplies of feeders tight,” he says.
Lean Hog Futures Correct From Contract Highs
Lean hog futures are lower early Monday with some profit taking and hedge selling after the market his new contract highs again on Friday.
The bullish Hogs and Pigs Report supported last week’s higher weekly close but the funds are also record long in the market.
The key will be how long do the funds support their long position?
Corn and Soybeans See Harvest Pressure
Corn and soybeans are slightly lower on Monday seeing some hedge and harvest pressure with dry weather over the weekend and an open week for combining across the Midwest.
Kooima is concerned that corn and soybeans are setting on critical support areas that need to hold or the markets could take another leg lower.
There is some positioning ahead of the USDA reports on Tuesday but Koomia is not expecting much change from expectations.
One positive for the corn market is private exporters reported 5.3 million bu. of corn sold to Mexico for the 2025-26 marketing year and 4.4 million bu. of corn to unknown destinations, also for 2025-26.
